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406 XINSHEN DIAO AND JAMES THURLOW


and urban households increase as a result of an agriculture-led growth strategy but also that the resulting additional demand for agricultural products can be met by domestic supply without signifi cantly lowering product prices. Agricultural growth favors broadly based development. We also found that agricultural growth itself needs to be broadly based: it


should involve multiple subsectors and also include the development of downstream nonagricultural sectors. A broadly based agricultural strategy emphasizes diversifi ed opportunities for a majority of farmers. This includes farmers in different locations, who face different agroecological conditions and have different farming technologies and systems. Most of our case studies found it unlikely that growth from a single agricultural subsector could generate enough economic growth on its own to sig- nifi cantly reduce national poverty. We also found that accelerating agricultural growth, even to 6 percent per year, is insuffi cient for most of the case-study countries to achieve the fi rst Millennium Development Goal. Faster nonagricultural growth and urban development are also needed. Trying to achieve broadly based agricultural development will challenge govern-


ments’ efforts to prioritize public investment across sectors and geographic locations. Growth in any country always occurs unevenly across subsectors and subnational regions. So even under a broadly based strategy, it is necessary to set priorities and sequence public investments and other interventions to support growth.


The Composition of Agricultural Growth Matters Individual agricultural subsectors play different roles and have a diverse set of impacts on development outcomes. More specifi cally, an agricultural strategy is composed of a series of growth targets at the agricultural subsector level that should realistically take into account both the initial conditions and growth potential of these subsectors. Although agricultural potential is an important condition, it is not enough to determine targets. Furthermore, given new challenges, such as climate change and globalization, agricultural growth has to be driven by productivity improvements, even in relatively land-abundant countries. The following sugges- tions can be drawn for how to prioritize productivity-led agricultural growth at the subsector level. First, the pro-poorness of an agricultural subsector’s growth should be at the top of the agenda in an agricultural strategy. Although agricultural growth is gener- ally pro-poor, different types of agricultural growth can lift a varying number of people out of poverty. The relationship between growth among different types of agricul- ture and poverty reduction depends on a country’s poverty distribution and sources of income among households. The pro-poorness of an agricultural subsector is also determined by who can participate in and benefi t from the growth of this sector and whether the sector has strong linkages and spillover effects to other economic activi-


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