Source: The Malawian dynamic computable general equilibrium model results. Notes: Poverty line is MWK16,165 or US$115 per person per year. The poverty headcount ratio is the proportion of the population with per capita consumption below the poverty line. CAADP: Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme. MDG = Millennium Development Goal. MWK = Malawian kwachas.
rate falls from 52.4 percent in 2004 to 47.0 percent by 2015 (Figure 9.2). Urban poverty falls from 25.4 percent to 23.7 percent by 2015; rural poverty declines from 55.9 percent to 50.2 percent during the same period. Given such modest declines in the poverty rate and the 2.2 percent annual growth in population, the absolute number of poor people increases from 6.38 million in 2004 to 7.04 million by 2015. The model results suggest that if Malawi had followed the same growth path that had previously led to the food system crisis of the mid-2000s, then poverty reduc- tion would indeed have been limited. This result underscores Malawi’s need to accelerate growth and poverty reduction if the country is to come close to achieving the fi rst Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving poverty by 2015.
Accelerated Growth Scenarios
Impacts on National and Agricultural Growth This section examines the potential contribution of different agricultural subsectors to helping Malawi achieve more rapid overall agricultural and national economic growth. More specifi cally, we consider what would be needed for Malawi to reach a 6 percent agricultural growth rate target—what we will call the “Agriculture” scenario or CAADP scenario. Given the country’s land constraints and its recent successes