ZAMBIA 341


improve the road network. The main objective of the program is to rehabilitate the existing network, meaning that the road density will still remain low. However, road conditions are likely to improve signifi cantly. New roads must be built, especially to improve the market integration of Zone 3, where large growth and poverty- reduction potentials have been identifi ed.


Conclusions The DCGE model results indicate that Zambia would need to achieve quite ambi- tious improvements in crop yields and subsector growth if it is to achieve the CAADP target of 6 percent agricultural growth by 2015. If attained, this fast growth would lift an additional 780,000 people above the poverty line by 2015. It would not, however, be suffi cient for Zambia to achieve the fi rst MDG of halving national poverty. Most households are expected to benefi t from faster agricultural growth, and the distribution of additional incomes becomes more even. However, farm house- holds growing high-value export crops stand to gain more than those relying more on foodcrops or livestock. Furthermore, households in agroecological Zones 1 and 2a in the southern parts of the country benefi t more than households in more remote zones. Finally, although rural households benefi t more than urban house- holds, not least because the former are more dependent on agricultural incomes, urban households also benefi t. This is because urban agriculturalists make up a signifi cant share of agricultural producers in Zambia, and agricultural commodities are an important part of urban consumer baskets. Comparing the effectiveness of growth driven by different subsectors on


reducing poverty and encouraging broadly based growth, we fi nd that 1 percent GDP growth driven by either cereals or root crops leads to considerably more poverty reduction than similar growth in export crops. This is because yield improvements in the former crops not only benefi t households directly by increas- ing incomes from cereals and root-crop production but also indirectly by allowing farmers to diversify their land allocations to high-value crops. The benefi ts of diversifi cation from promoting maize has been confi rmed by empirical studies for Zambia (see, for example, Zulu et al. 2000; Phiri et al. 2004). Foodcrops also have stronger growth linkages to nonagricultural sectors, thereby stimulating economy- wide growth and poverty reduction. However, the high growth potential of export crops relative to that of foodcrops means that export-led growth may still account for a large share of poverty reduction. Furthermore, the small initial size and geographic concentration of certain foodcrops, such as roots, means that their potential contribution to national growth and poverty reduction may be limited, at least over the short term. Taken together, our fi ndings highlight the importance


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