Source: The Ugandan dynamic computable general equilibrium model results. Notes: Rural and urban poverty lines are US$121 and US$136 per person per year, respectively. MDG1 = first Millennium Development Goal.
poverty falls from 13.8 to 11.3 percent by 2015, whereas rural poverty declines from 34.3 to 29.3 percent during the same period. Ultimately, growth and poverty reduction in the baseline scenario produce a
poverty–growth elasticity of –0.8, which is broadly consistent with the elasticity of –0.6 observed during 2000–06. However, it is well below the elasticity of the 1990s, when Uganda was able to reduce the number of poor people living in the country. Thus, even though Uganda may be on track to achieve MDG1, the challenge still remains to fi nd new opportunities to accelerate growth and poverty reduction, especially in rural areas.
Accelerated Growth Scenarios
Impacts on Economic Growth The previous section estimated the impact of Uganda’s current growth path on poverty reduction. This section examines the potential contribution of different agricultural subsectors to helping Uganda achieve a 6 percent agricultural growth target. Accelerated crop production is modeled by increasing crop yields and live- stock productivity to achieve reasonable improvements by 2015. Maximum poten- tial yields are taken from fi eld trial estimates reported by the National Agricultural