Table 5.6—Consumption linkages in the simulation scenarios Baseline
Category Growth in GDP (percent) Cereals
Export crops Livestock
Other foods Nonfood
Export crops Livestock
Other foods Nonfood
Change from baseline in 2015 (percent) Total
Cereals
Export crops Livestock
Other foods Nonfood
Elasticity of consumption–GDP,a 2015 Total
Cereals
Export crops Livestock
Other foods Nonfood
scenario 6.1
5.1 4.7 4.4 3.8 3.7 6.3
Growth in consumption, measured by real expenditure (percent) Total
5.4 6.0 4.5 3.9 3.8 6.3
Share in increased total consumption, 2015 (percent) Cereals
76.4 1.5 3.0 7.4
11.7 2.1
9.0 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.5
1.2 5.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.3
6.2 5.3
6.3 5.4
Cereals Export crops Livestock 6.3
4.8 4.8 3.9 3.8 6.5
10.2 20.5 7.8 7.8
53.8 1.2
0.7 2.8 0.7 0.7 1.3
1.4 0.8 3.2 0.8 0.8 1.6
Source: Ethiopian dynamic computable general equilibrium model results.
Note: GDP = gross domestic product. aElasticity of consumption–GDP is defined as the ratio of the percentage increase in consumption from baseline to percentage increase in GDP from baseline, both for 2015.
4.8 4.5 5.3 3.7 6.4
3.9 1.6
73.1 1.8
19.5 1.9
0.4 0.4
10.6 0.3 0.8
1.3 0.3 0.2 7.2 0.2 0.5
Accelerated economic growth led by All agriculture 6.8