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358 JAMES THURLOW


per hectare (the average for 1996–2006) (FAO 2008). Overall growth in cereal production in the baseline scenario exceeds population growth. This causes an excess supply of these staple crops, and the resulting fall in prices encourages farmers to reduce the amount of land allocated to maize and other cereals. Thus, even though total cropland is growing at 2 percent per year, a smaller share of land is allocated to cereals by 2015. However, cereal production still expands at about 3.5 percent per year during 2006–15. Similar baseline expansion paths are defi ned for other crops and agricultural subsectors using historical production trends. The baseline growth paths are cali- brated for the nonagricultural sectors based on historical national accounts data (Mozambique, NIS 2007). Based on these sector-level trends, the DCGE model results indicate that, with modest agricultural growth and faster nonagricultural growth, national GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 6.3 percent during 2006–15. Adjusting for 2 percent population growth, average per capita GDP grows at 4.3 percent, causing household incomes to rise and poverty to fall. The national poverty headcount rate falls in the baseline scenario from 54.4 percent in 2003 to 36.9 percent in 2015 (Figure 12.1). This rate is suffi cient for the absolute number of poor to decline from 9.95 million to 8.55 million. Balanced growth across agri- cultural and nonagricultural sectors means that national income growth is evenly distributed across rural and urban areas.


Figure 12.1—National poverty rate in model scenarios


Percent 55


Baseline scenario CAADP scenario


50 45 40 35


30


MDG target 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Source: The Mozambican dynamic computable general equilibrium model results. Notes: The poverty rate is the proportion of the population with per capita consumption below the poverty line. CAADP = Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme. MDG = Millennium Develop- ment Goal.


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