Table 9.8—Estimated government resource allocation in the investment analysis (percent) Agricultural growth from PAE growth only
Agriculture scenario Baseline Indicator
Real annual growth rate (percent) Total public expenditure Agriculture
Nonagriculture
Government expenditure share (percent) PAE/total expenditure 2004 2010 2015
PAE/agricultural GDP 2004 2010 2015
PNE/nonagricultural GDP 2004 2010 2015
Total expenditure/total GDP 2004 2010 2015
8.8 MDG scenario
Agriculture scenario
Including effects of faster PNE growth MDG scenario
Low High Low High Low High Low scenario elasticity elasticity elasticity elasticity elasticity elasticity elasticity 14.2 10.6
13.8 35.1 24.4 8.3 8.3 8.3
7.0
9.2 22.2 14.8 11.5 46.4 25.8
5.7
10.6 24.6 15.0 17.6 82.9 33.4
51.0
66.6 65.2 65.2 83.2 80.1 80.1
32.8
44.7 47.7 43.6 58.1 81.4 58.9
44.0 38.5 48.3 44.2 80.8 48.7 81.9 60.1
50.1 84.6
45.6 61.7
Sources: Authors’ investment analysis results based on their literature review of elasticities; data from Malawi, NSO (2007) and IFPRI (2010); and the Malawian dynamic computable general equilibrium model results. Notes: GDP = gross domestic product. MDG = Millennium Development Goal. PAE = public agricultural expenditure. PNE = public nonagricultural expenditure. Blank cells = not applicable.