Figure 11.3—Sources of additional production growth by farm type Percent
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0
Export crops Livestock
Other foodcrops Roots
Source: The Zambian dynamic computable general equilibrium model results. Notes: Real production growth is over and above the baseline scenario growth. The sector indicated is the one driving growth in the scenario.
age points, whereas urban poverty declines by 4.8 percentage points. Therefore, accelerating agricultural growth in the Agriculture scenario not only increases pov- erty reduction in both urban and rural areas, but it also helps correct some of the urban bias in Zambia’s historical growth path. This correction is, however, driven by strong rural income growth in certain parts of the country. Household incomes in Zones 1 and 2a benefi t more than households in Zones 2b and 3. Differences in regional outcomes can be explained by considering the sources
of income growth across the household groups. Figure 11.4 shows that additional household incomes in Zones 1 and 2a are driven by growth in export crops. For example, more than half of additional incomes in Zone 2a come from such growth.
National Rural farm
Small-scale farm High-value crops
Maize and other foodcrops Maize and roots only
Maize, roots, and other foodcrops Roots only
Roots and other foodcrops Large-scale farm Urban farm