Figure 9.5—Share of additional growth and poverty reduction under the Agriculture scenario
30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Poverty reduction Growth
Source: The Malawian dynamic computable general equilibrium model results. Notes: Figure shows additional growth over and above baseline scenario growth. The sector indicated is the one driving growth in the scenario.
on nonagricultural commodities. We explicitly measure this linkage effect in Table 9.7. In the maize-led growth scenario, total GDP increases by 12.8 billion Malawian kwachas (MWK12.8 billion), and agricultural GDP increases by MWK11.5 billion. Thus, for every one MWK1.00 increase in agricultural GDP led by maize growth, there is an additional MWK0.11 increase in nonagricultural GDP (that is, a multi- plier of 1.11). Comparison of these ratios across model scenarios suggests that even through fi sheries-led growth contributes less to agricultural growth in the Agriculture scenario (see Figure 9.5), it is more effective at stimulating nonagricultural growth than is export-crop-led growth. This is because the latter has weaker economywide growth linkages, refl ecting the fact that most export crops are exported directly as raw agricultural materials rather than contributing to downstream production.
Price Effects and Marketing Constraints As a landlocked country, export opportunities are few for many of Malawi’s agricul- tural products. Price effects and demand constraints must therefore be taken into account when developing growth strategies for the country. Domestic prices are