Table 5.8—Changes in poverty rates and poverty–growth elasticities Base year
Baseline Category value scenario
Poverty rate by 2015 (percent) National Rural Urban
38.7 39.3 35.1
28.6 29.6 23.5
Additional people lifted out of poverty by 2015 relative to baseline (thousand) National Rural Urban
Share of reduction in absolute numbers of the poor by 2015 (percent) Rural Urban
Poverty–growth elasticity –1.13 –1.40 Cereals
26.1 27.0 22.1
2,075 1,871 204
90.2 9.8
–1.16
Export crops
28.1 29.2 22.9
422 328 94
77.8 22.2
–1.16
All Livestock
27.9 29.0 22.5
agriculture
24.8 25.6 20.7
600 3,194 460 2,799
23.4 –1.41
87.6 12.4
Nonagriculture
27.0 27.5 24.5
1,357 1,502
140 395 –145 76.6
–1.05
Source: Ethiopian dynamic computable general equilibrium model results. Notes: The poverty rate is the proportion of the population with per capita consumption below the poverty line. Blank cells = not applicable.