Climatologist Uses the ‘R’ Word
C
LIMATOLOGIST EVELYN BROWNING- Garriss received a round of ap- plause when she started her Drought
CONVENTION
Update and Weather Outlook session at the Cattle Raisers Convention with a 4-letter word. She said “RAIN,” and said, “You’ll be seeing more of it.” Browning-Garriss is a welcome and repeat speak-
er at the annual Cattle Raisers Convention. Spon- sored by Zesch and Pickett Insurance, she spoke at the Natural Resources and Environment Committee breakout session, chaired by TSCRA Director Jay Evans, Austin. At the April 6 meeting, she said, “First, as you
may have noticed, winter was, shall we say, a little brisk. What happened is we had an extremely cold winter because of volcanoes. There were 2 volca- noes that went off in 2011 in the poles. They put so much dust and debris into the atmosphere that they cooled off the poles. In any year where ‘polar vortex’ becomes a household word, you know you’re in trouble. It’s going to create a volatile spring.” Browning-Garriss describes her work as that of
a historical climatologist. “You know all the headlines about man-made
global warming. I don’t talk about that. I do the stuff that you don’t have time to do. “You don’t have time to read all the latest science
about natural climate change. I’m trying to show you natural climate ebbs and fl ows. It’s always moving like a horse. If you don’t match the movements of the horse, you’re going to fall off. I’m trying to tell you how things are moving.” As a historical climatologist, Browning-Garriss
looks at the factors shaping our weather pattern. She consults monastic records from the ninth century, tree rings, ice cores and layers of mud for compari- sons. “According to scientists, when we put those together we have a year-to-year record of what the climate was like for 100,000 years.” She then looks at the 5 years on either side of a
year that had weather patterns similar to today’s weather. With that information, she can say, “This is what happened 80 percent of the time [in the histori- cal record]. This is a perspective so you can make
56 The Cattleman June 2014
informed decisions.” So where are we
now in our climate? We may be expecting an El Nino weather pattern. Browning-Garriss
Evelyn Browning-Garriss is a welcome repeat speaker at the Cattle Raisers Convention. She had some encouraging words for Texas ranchers at the Drought Update and Weather Outlook.
pointed out that because oceans make up 70 percent of the Earth, “When you’re talking about climate, the oceans are not the elephant in the room — they are the room. The Atlantic Ocean is really hot, and this is a long-term heating trend. It creates hotter summers and stormier winters, spring and falls. We are in a long- term cycle of more extreme weather where it’s hotter in the summer and tends to get colder in the winter. Then, it is exciting in between.” Browning-Garriss says to look next at the tempera-
ture of the Pacifi c Ocean. “The Pacifi c is 30 percent of the globe’s surface. Right now it is neutral but is in the process of change.” This change in temperature may bring an El Nino weather pattern. “If it turns into a full scale El Nino, it brings a lot of
rain. For the summertime we’re talking about good rains for central and western Texas as the overall pattern, but unfortunately not so much for the Gulf, Panhandle and Louisiana border. It’s when the El Nino develops and get stronger that you really start seeing the rain,” she said, but cautions that even if there’s an El Nino, it’s not the end of everyone’s problems in the summer. “I’ve been telling your group since the 1990s that
we are in a trend where the Pacifi c — 30 percent of the globe’s surface — has changed,” Browning-Garriss says. “There’s a cycle called the PDO, the Pacifi c Decadal Os- cillation, or Pretty Dry Oklahoma. It started to change in 1999 and it tipped in 2006. It is creating drier con- ditions here in the Southwest. It is destabilizing rain patterns and with it agriculture worldwide. The good news is you have a better infrastructure than most of your competitors and the rest of the world.” To read more of Browning-Garriss’ work, visit her website at
browningnewsletter.com.
thecattlemanmagazine.com
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