Foreign Amenas
Weakness Feeds Chaos in Africa
Stories provided by the global editorial resources of LIGNET
The Mali crisis put the world on notice: Ignore security threats at your own peril.
T BY FRED FLEITZ
he mali crisis is a refuta- tion of the naïve view that Osama bin Laden’s death ended the war on terror and
eliminated the threat of al-Qaida. But the rapid rise of Islamic insurgents in North Africa also represents a fail- ure by the international community — especially the United Nations — to address urgent security issues. The international observers caught
off -guard by the spread of al-Qaida were even more shocked by socialist French President François Hollande’s response. He called for a bold French military intervention in January to blunt the Islamist insurgency’s advance. Hollande, an outspoken critic of
the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, has been strongly anti-interventionist. So strong was his reputed aversion to military action that his opponents
FRED FLEITZ
Fred Fleitz, a former CIA analyst and senior House Intelligence Committee staff member, is managing editor of
LIGNET.com. For classification reasons, this article was cleared by the Central Intelligence Agency.
38 NEWSMAX | MARCH 2013
nicknamed him “Flanby” — a wobbly, bland, and very sugary French des- sert. When a second terrorist group allied to al-Qaida retaliated for the French action by attacking an Alge- rian natural gas facility near the lawless Libyan border, that shock turned to outrage. Dozens of civilian work-
ers were killed when Algerian special forces staged a rescue assault on the facility. A third Islamist group, in
Somalia, promptly executed a French intelligence offi cer. France had acted after growing
concerns that northern Mali was becoming a haven for Islamist terror- ists who were threatening to imple- ment a strict form of Islamic law, Sha- riah, that includes stonings, amputa- tions, and fl oggings. The rebels melted into the popula-
tion to avoid being targeted by French airstrikes. The confl ict across France’s former
North African colonies could prove politically damaging to President Hol- lande. His approval ratings are already
sinking due to the dismal state of the French economy. If any further Mali operations go poorly it could severely hurt him.
ALGERIA MALI
Benghazi LIBYA
FALLOUT Emergency workers carry a cof in into a hospital in Amenas, Algeria, where bodies of some of the hostages who were killed in the crisis were laid out.
Mali’s army has proven corrupt
and incapable. It has been accused of atrocities and summary executions against suspected Islamists, and of engaging in ethnic violence. There is no clear plan for establishing a stable government that will be able to work with security forces to establish control over the whole country without France’s help. The situation is a wake-up
HOLLANDE
call for the United States and its Western allies.
They are now on notice: They
must come up with better ways to address security threats in North Africa before such incidents spin out of control. And the threat does not stop there.
If the Assad government falls in Syria later this year and Islamist rebels attempt to seize control there, the West may soon face another urgent security crisis requiring quick and decisive action.
* * *
Note: LIGNET provides global intelligence and forecasting from former CIA, U.S. intelligence, and national security of icers, drawing on an international network of ex- perts and sources. To sign up for LIGNET’s global intelligence reports online, go to
LIGNET.com/March
AMENAS, HOLLANDE/AP IMAGES
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