This
Month in
History
the last four decades have played a major role. But so have delayed mar- riage, the increase of women in the workplace, the rise in cohabitation, and the high cost of housing. The economic implications are
vast. The U.S. Department of Agricul- ture recently calculated that the aver- age family will spend nearly one-quarter of a million dol- lars to raise a child born in 2011 to age 17. That doesn’t include a college degree, which costs a small fortune.
T
hose costs represent a serious burden to par-
50 YEARS AGO 1963
The federal penitentiary at Alcatraz closes.
That America is faring better than
most developed nations is due in large part to its ongoing immigration, including illegal immigration. Recent immigrants tend to have a higher fer- tility rate, which helps explain why the U.S. population isn’t nose-diving as much as other countries. Today, American middle-
6.0 Global
1979
ents. But they are a boon for the economy at large. From formula to diapers to car seats to toys to medicines — children are a font of eco- nomic activity. As they grow up and enter their adult years, they have families of their own and begin to contribute to a new cycle of economic productivity. Changes in fertility rates send rip-
Birth Rate Number of births for every 1,000 women of childbearing age.
2.5 TODAY
class women have, on aver- age, about the same num- ber of children as Chinese women: 1.6. However, Chi- nese women have been sub- jected to the one-child policy for decades. Of course, with lifespans averaging more than 70 years in developed coun- tries, it takes a while for the decline in fertility to actually result in an overall drop in population. The global population
ples through the body politic. Social welfare systems begin to bleed red ink when retirees outnumber workers. Innovation slows, because most entre- preneurs are under age 40. Invest- ment capital dries up because inves- tors grow more conservative with their money as they age. There are even fewer people to serve in the military. So perhaps the American bugaboo
shouldn’t be so much winding up like Greece, but rather coming to resem- ble Japan. After all, that aging island nation has averaged only about 1 per- cent growth over the past 20 years. “Our fertility rate is not quite as
low as Japan’s is now,” Last says, “but there are signs to suggest that we could be heading in that direction.”
currently stands at over 7 billion. But the rate of growth has been slowing for two generations. According to Last, the planet’s population will peak in the next 85 years at somewhere between 10 billion and 12 billion. After that, the population will begin shrinking. “Since Paul Ehrlich wrote The Pop- ulation Bomb [in 1968], we’ve heard almost nothing but the hysterics of overpopulation; you know, ‘The world is going to be too full of people and hundreds of millions of people would die from starvation’ in the 1970s,” Last says. But the real danger, he says, is economic and social disruptions stem- ming from declining populations. “Fertility rates, fi rst in the West
and then everywhere else, went into a nose dive beginning in about 1970,” he says. “And this is likely to lead to some very tough times, certainly around the globe — but also in America.”
Religion Plays a Role in U.S. Fertility Rates
S
o what should America do to prevent a future baby shortage?
Author Jonathan V. Last says more Americans should attend churches or synagogues. Secular Americans, it turns out, have a fertility rate of just 1.66, compared to 2.3 for observant Catholics and 2.2 for Protestants. In fact, fertility rates for religious
folks are so much greater than for secular people that Last predicts America will inevitably become “a more religious country” over the next five decades. If it does, that would help boost the nation’s fertility rate. Last contends Social Security
distorts the “market value” of children. Not so long ago, people used to have lots of children because their kids could help support them in autumn years. But with Social Security, retirement is guaranteed. “We have everybody getting
Social Security benefits whether or not they went to the incredible expense of raising a child — and it’s about $1 million to raise a kid once you include college and forgone wages,” Last says. One way to strengthen the
marriage culture, Last says, is tax reform. Currently, the tax code discriminates against married people. Finally, Last says having fun “has
become a legitimate pillar around which one could arrange one’s life.” Children, conversely, are
sometimes viewed in today’s society as a marker of social failure. After all, parents with a lot of kids will have less money to spend on themselves. The bottom line, Last says, is that
Americans need to re-evaluate their values.
MARCH 2013 | NEWSMAX 13
25 YEARS AGO 1988
Mike Tyson knocks out Tony Tubbs for heavyweight boxing title.
ALCATRAZ/AP IMAGES / TYSON/SANKEI ARCHIVE/GETTY IMAGES
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