SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2010 NFL GAMEDAY TELEVISIONGAMES
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Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
1 p.m., Giants by 61/2
An offseason purge of veterans has left the Panthers with NFL’s youngest roster—average age: 25 years, 233 days—as Coach John Fox enters final year of his contract. . . . The Panthers were the first team in at least 14 years to not score an offensive touchdown in the preseason. . . . Wide receiver Steve Smith and running back Jonathan Stewart (above) didn’t play in the preseason because of injuries, but are ready forWeek 1. . . . Stewart rushed for a career-high 206 yards vs. Giants last year. . . . QuarterbackMattMoore, who has replaced seven-year starter Jake Delhomme, threwthree touchdown passes and is 6-2 as a starter. . . . The Panthers had 19 sacks in preseason despite losing defensive end Julius Peppers to Chicago in free agency. . . . The Giants lost eight of their final 11 games last season in missing playoffs for first time since 2005. . . . The game will be the Giants’ first under newdefensive coordinator Perry Fewell. . . . Linebackers are a question mark with Jonathan Goff replacing retired Antonio Pierce at middle linebacker, and free agent Keith Bulluck starting outside. . . . Quarterback EliManning is coming off a career season in which he threwfor 4,021 yards and 27 touchdowns.
SMARTER STATS: It used to be that both of these teams featured great defenses and power rushing attacks.Now, both front lines are in trouble and only Carolina’s power game remains. Tom Coughlin is still waiting for Brandon Jacobs’s inside game to return—Jacobs’s per-carry average plummeted from 5.0 in 2008 to 3.7 in 2009.
USERS PICKING THE GIANTS 91% GAMESNOTONTELEVISION
Cleveland at Tampa Bay 1 p.m., Buccaneers by 3
MATCHUP
New Browns quarterback Jake Delhomme has a 9-2 career record against Tampa Bay and is 108 yards shy of 20,000 career passing yards. Former Brown KellenWinslow was Tampa Bay’s leading receiver last season, setting records for a Bucs tight end with 77 receptions for 884 yards.
Miami at Buffalo 1 p.m., Dolphins by 3
The Dolphins have lost four straight season openers and are 1-6 in their last seven. Chad Henne becomes sixth quarterback to start a Dolphins season in seven years after going 7-6 in place of Chad Pennington. The Bills have won five straight against Miami at RalphWilson Stadium.
Indianapolis at Houston 1 p.m., Colts by 2
Indianapolis, which has led NFL in third-down conversion rate every year since 2005, has the league’s best road record over past eight seasons at 48-16. Houston’s Andre Johnson, who has led league in yards receiving the past two seasons, has caught a pass in 66 consecutive games.
Denver at Jacksonville 1 p.m., Jaguars by 3
If right tackle Ryan Harris (sprained left ankle) misses the game, the Broncos could start an offensive line that includes first-year pro Stanley Daniels and rookies J.D.Walton and Zane Beadles. The Jaguars have lost three straight home openers.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh 1 p.m., Falcons by 11/2
The Falcons are 13-1 when Michael Turner carries 22 or more times. Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez needs one catch to become the first NFL tight end with 1,000 career receptions. The Steelers have won seven consecutive openers, the NFL’s longest current streak.
Oakland at Tennessee 1 p.m., Titans by 6
Tennessee’s Chris Johnson had 2,006 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns last season; no NFL player has rushed for 2,000 yards in consecutive seasons. Jason Campbell, 20-32 as a Redskins starter since 2006, makes his Raiders debut, replacing JaMarcus Russell.
Detroit at Chicago 1 p.m., Bears by 61/2
The Bears have taken four straight against the Lions, running away with a 48-24 home victory after Johnny Knox started the second half with a 102-yard kick return. Detroit has lost 20 straight road games since winning 16-7 at Chicago on Oct. 28, 2007.
San Francisco at Seattle 4:15 p.m., 49ers by 3
Frank Gore, whose four straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons are the longest streak in 49ers history, has averaged nearly 150 yards per game against Seattle since 2006. The Seahawks were 26th in the NFL in turnover margin last season.
Arizona at St. Louis 4:15 p.m., Cardinals by 31/2
The Cardinals have won seven in a row against the Rams and five in a row in St. Louis, their former home, and are 13-5 vs. NFCWest since 2007. The Rams were 0-8 at home last year, their first winless record since going 0-6 in 1959, and have lost 13 in row at home.
MONDAY’SGAMES
Baltimore at N.Y. Jets 7 p.m., Jets by 21/2
MATCHUP
New RavensWRAnquan Boldin has played 95 games and needs 14 catches to reach 600; Marvin Harrison’s 102 games is the record. Last season was the first the Ravens had a 3,500-yard passer (Joe Flacco), 1,000-yard receiver (Derrick Mason) and 1,000-yard rusher (Ray Rice).
San Diego at Kansas City 10:15 p.m., Chargers by 41/2
The Chiefs lead the series 50-49-1, with 12 games decided by one point. That’s the most of any series in NFL since 1960. Chiefs linebacker Tamba Hali had 81/2
Rivers to be sacked once in either meeting between the teams.
at New England Patriots 1 p.m., Patriots by 51/2
This game will be a pass-catching extravaganza, featuring two of the most dangerous wide receiver combinations in NFL: the Bengals’ Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco (above) and the Patriots’ RandyMoss andWesWelker. . . . The Patriots have won six of the past seven meetings between the teams. . . . Owens, who caught 55 passes in his only season with Buffalo last year, joins an offense that was ranked 26th in yards passing last season. . . . Ochocinco needs one touchdown catch to tie Carl Pickens for most scoring receptions in club history with 63. . . . Carson Palmer threwfor 21 touchdowns and 13 interceptions last year. Cincinnati’s backup quarterback is his brother, Jordan Palmer. . . . Running back Cedric Benson missed 31/2
games last year but still rushed for 1,251 yards. . . .
Tom Brady enters his second straight opener after suffering a season-ending knee injury in the first game of 2008. On Thursday, he was unhurt in a two-car accident near his home in Boston’s Back Bay.…Welker, whose 346 receptions over the last three seasons lead the NFL, is expected to start after making strong recovery from serious knee injury suffered in last season’s final regular season game.
SMARTER STATS: In 2009, the Bengals went from a pass-heavy team to a run-first power organization with great success. But they would be wise to throw to their running backs and first- round tight end Jermaine Gresham;NewEngland is weaker against inline receivers looking to make tracks downfield.
USERS PICKING THE PATRIOTS 79% SMARTER STATS
The Browns faced 212 blitzes on their pass plays, but they gained just 3.9 yards per pass play with five or more rushers coming at their quarterback, which was tied with Seattle for the NFL’s worst. The Bucs weren’t much better, gaining 5.5 yards per play when rushed by five or more defenders.
The ‘Fins will want to run as muchWildcat formation against the Bills as possible—last year, Miami led the league inWildcat plays (no surprise) with 109, and Buffalo had a very high defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) when Miami ran those plays against them.
The Texans lost two agonizingly close games to the Colts last season that were all about the team’s red zone performance. Houston scored one touchdown on nine red zone plays in the 20-17 loss inWeek 9, and three touchdowns on 16 red zone plays in theWeek 12 35-27 follow-up.
The Jags had better test that weak Denver run defense with the run in the red zone—last season, only the 1-15 Rams had a lower Passing DVOA inside the opponents’ 20-yard line.
Without Ben Roethlisberger in the lineup through at least the first month, expect the Steelers to run more out of pass formations. They ran 44 times out of trips/bunch formations in 2009, averaging 4.4 yards per carry (5.5 on bunch sets alone).
One matchup really looks like a problem for Tennessee: Tight end Zach Miller is Oakland’s best receiver, new quarterback Campbell loves to throw to his tight ends, and the Titans ranked 31st in DVOA against the tight ends they faced.
Last year, the Bears were the worst red zone rushing team in the NFL, and it wasn’t even close. The only saving grace here is that the Lions ranked 19th in Football Outsiders (FO) stats in red zone run defense and 27th in goal-to-go situations.
The best way for Alex Smith and the 49ers’ offense to go after the Seahawks? Use the shotgun formation. Last season, Smith took shotgun snaps in 50 percent of his passing situations, and was much more effective when doing so.
The Rams don’t have any real statistical edges entering this (or any other) game. But this is another team that should be using a lot of shotgun given the skill sets of their first-round draft pick. Quarterback Sam Bradford took exactly one snap under center in his abbreviated 2009 season.
SMARTER STATS
The difference between the two defenses most recently designed by Rex Ryan is that the Jets have an elite secondary, and the Ravens really don’t. The Jets finished first in DVOA last year based to a large degree on a backfield that had more going for it than just Darrelle Revis.
sacks last year, but the Chargers did not allow Philip
Of the Chiefs’ 22 sacks last season, four came on a series of formations the defense ran a mere 2.7 percent of the time. But the Chiefs must have realized that zone blitzes against Philip Rivers are unadvisable, because they didn’t send one against San Diego in two division games.
Smarter stats is a blog written by Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders. For complete analysis of all of the week’s games go to
views.washingtonpost.com/theleague/smarterstats
Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
4:15 p.m., Packers by 3
The Eagles are honoring the 50th anniversary of their last championship team by wearing 1960 uniforms. . . . The Packers won the teams’ last meeting after losing the previous five. . . . Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (above) is coming off a Pro Bowl season in which he threwfor 4,434 yards, 30 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. . . . This is Green Bay’s first season opener on the road under CoachMikeMcCarthy, who enters his fifth season. . . . The Packers feature two 1,000-yard wide receivers, Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, and a 1,200- yard rusher, Ryan Grant, in an offense that ranked sixth overall last year. . . . Eagles quarterback Kevin Kolb will make his third career start, taking over for departed DonovanMcNabb. . . . Eagles coach Andy Reid is 4-0 at home vs. Green Bay, where he was an assistant underMikeHolmgren. . . . Wide receiver DeSean Jackson scored 10 of his 12 touchdowns last year from 35 yards or more.He had eight touchdowns of 50 yards or longer, tying an NFL record. . . . Running back LeSeanMcCoy makes his first start since replacing the departed Brian Westbrook as the primary tailback.McCoy filled in well last year whenWestbrook missed several games.
SMARTER STATS: If you want to know what makes Green Bay’s Rodgers a great quarterback, you can start with how he does under pressure. Only Jay Cutler and Jason Campbell were hurried by pass rushers more often than Rodgers last season, and Rodgers put up the best DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) under pressure by far (61.8 percent and 9.6 passing yards per play on 131 hurries).
USERS PICKING THE PACKERS 86% USER PICKS
75% picked the Bucs
88% picked the Dolphins
84% picked the Colts
69% picked the Broncos
56% picked the Falcons
94% picked the Titans
85% picked the Bears
87% picked the 49ers
82% picked the Cardinals
USER PICKS
56% picked the Jets
94% picked the Chargers
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