But the rift will take time to close. Robert Service, the author of biog-
raphies of Lenin, Stalin, and Trotsky and a fellow at Stanford’s conserva- tive Hoover Institution, says it’s more important to solve the Ukraine con- flict than to focus on aggressor/victim narratives. He believes the Biden administration
made a disastrous decision in Novem- ber 2021 — three months before the Rus- sian invasion — by joining with Ukraine in a charter on strategic partnership, which asserted America’s support for Kyiv’s right to pursue membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Service says that and other moves represented “shambolic mismanage- ment” by Europe and the U.S. by offer- ing Ukraine encouragement on joining NATO, but with no thought on how to deal with Putin if he responded with anger and violence. Putin not only is obsessed with
Ukraine not going to the West, but Service said he is convinced he “can’t afford to allow life to a neighboring Slav state which has even a smidgen of democratic development. His Russian people might get dangerous ideas.” Of course, Putin didn’t factor in
how much Ukrainians valued their independence or how the West would respond to his aggression. He thought Ukraine would be a pushover. In 2020, Russia spent 10 times more on its mili- tary than Ukraine did.
Finland Offers Hopeful Lesson
A
s perilous as any Ukraine peace deal will be, there is at least one
historical example of a semi-successful outcome after a famous display of Russian aggression — the Soviet-Finnish Winter War of 1939 to 1940, when Joseph Stalin invaded the former czarist province of Russia. Just like the start of the
Ukraine war three years ago, Finns met Stalin’s invading
STALIN
Aſter three years of war, both sides are exhausted and privately acknowledge some bitter truths.
So Service says Putin was surprised
when his troops were stopped cold in Ukraine and “that he’d inadvertently united the West — that what he’d done was the very opposite of what he wanted.” After three years of war, both sides
are exhausted and privately acknowl- edge some bitter truths. For Russia, the war has been a disas-
ter, creating a weak economy with 21% annual interest rates and import- ing mercenaries from North Korea to fight and launch suicide attacks against Ukrainian lines. Over a million Russians with valu-
able technical skills have fled the coun- try to avoid the draft. For Ukraine, Zelenskyy’s brave talk
of never surrendering an inch of Ukrai- nian territory looks hollow. Russia currently occupies about a
fifth of Ukrainian territory; before their annexation the population was only 60% Russian, it is now over 90%. “No one believes Ukrainians are
going to repopulate those areas soon,” a former Ukrainian cabinet member told me. “And the last thing a future Ukrai-
nian leader facing an election wants is for a hostile Russian population
forces with fierce resistance, aided by neighbors, and humiliated the Kremlin dictator, who had expected quick victory. After three months of bitter fighting,
the Soviets regrouped and resupplied and began a devastating pounding of the Finnish lines. With their backs to the wall — and after 70,000 dead, wounded, or missing — the Finns asked for peace. The war had been a painful humiliation for the Soviets, who lost 350,000 men, but they had captured enough Finnish territory to secure
unanimously voting for pro-Russian candidates.” So the outlines of a possible deal
are clear — Russia ends its aggression but keeps large chunks of the territory it captured; NATO membership for Ukraine is put on hold or barred; some of the frozen Russian assets in Western banks are used for reconstruction of the devastated areas at the same time that Western sanctions on Russia are eased. Supporters of Ukraine are right to
be suspicious of Putin’s word, and the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine is a thorny one. Trump is not willing to send U.S.
troops to become peacekeepers on the border between the two countries. That leaves Britain, France, Italy, and Ger- many to decide how much they want to demonstrate their support for a free Ukraine with something more tangible than weapons shipments. Zelenskyy has faced bigger chal-
lenges on the battlefield than figuring out a way to work with Trump on a peace deal. But he first has to accept that the open-ended support the Biden admin- istration gave his cause is over, and it’s in the interest of Ukraine to come to terms with that new reality.
peace terms that satisfied them. Finland conceded 10% of its territory, absorbed 400,000 refugees from those lands, and allowed the Soviets temporary use of a naval base in the Gulf of Finland. But Finland kept its independence
and grew into a prosperous member of the European Union, and, 85 years after the conflict ended, became a member of NATO in 2023. Historian William Farley has written,
“The Finnish Winter War offers a hopeful lesson for Ukraine, in that it is possible for a smaller country to badly bloody Russia’s nose” and not be swallowed by the Russian bear. — J.F.
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