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Glenn Cezanne


Joachim Marnitz


EU Bytes


Glenn Cezanne and Joachim Marnitz discuss the likely outcomes for the upcoming US election…


T


hings are in full fl edge in Brussels as people are coming back from their holidays and realise the paper pile on the desk has been getting bigger whilst they were away. I have not


really been on holidays, but the pile still got bigger. It is good to be busy in these times. Today I want to move your attention again to


outside the EU bubble, not least because all eyes are there: the US elections. More specifi cally, why you can bet that Trump will win again from the perspectives of polls and from betting odds. I will be interviewing someone you should


know by now, Joachim Marnitz, Time & Place’s Senior Strategic Advisor. We have done several interviews together for Casino International. The US elections have been on our radar for


quite a while and we have done several podcasts to this end. Now for a bit of subtle advertisement, our podcast series is called onTaP and you can fi nd it on iTunes, Spotify, you name it, you got it. We thought it would be worthwhile sharing some of our thoughts with you (of which you can hear more in our podcast). In the end, it is about odds and about outcome evaluation. In other words, something you are all familiar with: betting.


G. Cezanne: Good afternoon Jo, good to have you back on board. J. Marnitz: Good to be back.


GC: So, I already mentioned, we see Trump winning. We have held the line on this even when he was behind in a two-digits manner nationally a couple of months ago. Now we are looking at a much smaller margin. But, one way or another, that doesn’t really matter, correct? Polls can be wildly over- estimated, at least that is what we have always argued. And betting odds have often been misleading, but they seem to be inching towards our view. I especially say that with comfort as you correctly predicted Trump to win in the fi rst election and Brexit to happen even though both polls and betting odds generally indicated the opposite. JM: I appreciate the recognition, but on a more serious note, to respond, I want to look at the past Conventions of both parties that are behind us. Historically, the Conventions lead to a polling boost, but this did not happen for


Alexander Sánchez /Adobe Stock


Biden. With Trump there was a polling boost in some polls, but not all of them. However, the biggest move happened in the betting markets, where Trump improved from a 40/60 position to a 50/50 across all betting exchanges and bookmakers. Polls on the other hand are very divided, many still see Biden ahead, often comfortably so, but the margin varies wildly from poll to poll. Some see Biden ahead by eleven points nationally, others around two. It is still true that Biden’s polling lead is smaller in battleground states and generally speaking, his lead is smaller now on average across the board. So, yes, things are trending towards Trump.


32 SEPTEMBER 2020


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