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retailer guide Economic Snapshot


Courtesy of BHETA, the latest statistics relating to the UK economy, based on figures available at the end of January. In bullet point form for your reading convenience!


average up to February 2020 of 66,700.


• UK House Price Index UK average house prices increased by 10.0% over the year to November 2021, up from 9.8% in October 2021. The average UK house price was £271,000 in November 2021, which is £25,000 higher than this time last year


• House Moves The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in December 2021 is 100,110, 20.0% lower than December 2020 and 7.6% higher than November 2021. UK residential transactions have increased for the second month in a row after they decreased significantly in October 2021 due to the ending of the temporarily increased nil rate band for SDLT on 30 September.


W


hilst there are still positives for our sector, there are numerous signs of a squeeze on consumers’


disposable income, with tax and energy price rises set for April. In December, retail sales for non-food stores were 7.1% lower than December 2020. Factory output was slow in January with new order intakes the worst for over a year. Raw material price increases are very high


but may be peaking, with global energy prices down in November and December. Cost price increases through 2021 are now causing retail price inflation to surge, with CPI up 4.8% in 2021, and huge increases in many home enhancement categories. On the positive front, construction output


increased in November by 3.5% month on month. The housing market is still strong, with prices up by 10% in 2021, house moves in December were 7.6% up on November, and 67,000 mortgages were approved in November, which is close to the pre-pandemic 12-month average.


• Retail Sales Retail sales volumes fell by 3.7% in December 2021, but were 2.6% higher than their pre- coronavirus levels. Non-food stores sales volumes fell by 7.1% in December 2021, with falls in each of its sub-sectors (department stores, clothing stores, other non-food stores and household stores) following strong sales in November.


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• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.9% in November 2021 and is above its pre-coronavirus level for the first time, by 0.7%. Services (0.7%), production (1.0%) and construction (3.5%) output all increased between October and November 2021; this means that services and construction output are both 1.3% above their pre-coronavirus levels, while production remains 2.6% below.


• Purchasing Managers Index The PMI fell to 56.9 in January of 2022 from 57.9 in December, pointing to the slowest growth in factory activity since February. New order intakes had the worst month in a year. Some manufacturers suggested that forward- purchasing to beat new price lists for 2022 had weighed on demand. There was a strong increase in stocks of purchases as concerns about fresh delays from suppliers in China had resulted in safety stock building. Also, a gradual turnaround in raw material availability helped to soften cost pressures during January, as signalled by the weakest rise in purchasing prices since April 2021.


• Mortgage Approvals The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase in the United Kingdom, which is an indicator of future borrowing, was little- changed at 67,000 in November, the lowest since June 2020 but close to the 12-month


HousewaresLive.net


• Commodity prices The World Bank report that natural gas and coal prices reached record highs in 2021 although they are expected to decline in 2022. Energy prices fell 3.1% in December, adding to the 6.2% decline in November. Non-energy prices jumped 1.3%, with metals and minerals up 2.4% and precious metals down by 2.6%.


• Consumer Price Index


The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 4.8% in the 12 months to December 2021. Many categories in our sector had price changes well over average: irons +21.5%; ‘Other’ small electric household appliances +18.5%; coffee machines & tea makers +17.2%; materials for maintenance and repair +13.9%; garden products +13.0%; hand tools +9.0%; glassware and tableware +8.2%; kitchen utensils +7.9%; garden furniture +6.6%; personal care electricals +5.8%; cutlery +1.3%; cleaning equipment +1.3% and table linen +0.3%.


• Reuters FX Analysis Sterling remained at broadly the same exchange rate as in November/December 1 GBP = 1.20 EUR 27 Jan (1.19 EUR 21 Oct) 1 GBP = 1.34 USD 27 Jan (1.38 USD 21 Oct)


Labour Market


In December 2021, there were 29.5 million employees in the UK: up 184,000 on the November 2021 level and up 409,000 on the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) February 2020 level. All regions are now above pre- coronavirus levels, with Scotland having the largest percentage increase on the month.


twitter.com/Housewaresnews January/February 2022


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