talking trade WILL JONES Chief Operating Officer of the British Home Enhancement Trade Association (BHETA)
Unprecedented – the most used word of the year We have a reputation as a nation for our ability to bounce back from adversity
to say the least. A month or so ago, I was commenting on official figures and election results leading to greater clarity of purpose and suggesting that there were reasons to be optimistic about 2020. Based on these, when commenting on the
G
latest available statistics - retrospective of course - optimism still seems to have been the right note to strike; UK employment rate at a record high of 76.5%, construction output increased in Q4 of 2019, and the Purchasing Managers’ Index evidencing the strongest improvement in overall business conditions since April 2019, as output growth accelerated to a 10-month high. Now of course we are in a completely
different place. The situation is - to repeat a now much used word - unprecedented, and the immediate focus is inevitably on personal safety and business survival. In terms of the latter, the Chancellor’s announcements on economic support have
iven the fact we are all now staring into the unknown which is Covid-19, the latest economic statistics seem ironic
been heartening - as long as their implementation is straightforward and timely. We also have a reputation as a nation for our
ability to bounce back from adversity. I suspect, however, that the bounce-back - whenever it happens - will be to a somewhat changed world in terms of business practice and values.
“Cooking and eating at home is likely to be an even greater
factor in our lives”
This will not all be bad, and for some parts of the home improvement industry we already see inventive new ways of consumer engagement. Kerbside collections and home delivery services have appeared where they did not
previously exist. Businesses mandated to be closed are selling essentials from their car parks. Experiential shopping outlets are posting content on social media to retain relationships with their customers.
The online boom will continue, expanding
from shopping to ever-cleverer ways of achieving social and commercial interaction, from videoconferencing to virtual events. Handled appropriately, there will be
opportunities. The immediate, enforced focus on our homes and gardens and how we can enhance them will evolve. There will be a future in which consumers feel less inclined to venture away from the core of what is most important to them. Cooking and eating at home is likely to be an even greater factor in our lives. But it is difficult to look at all that now. For the moment, the most important thing is mutual support and getting through.
• For more information about BHETA, contact the member services team on 07946 078566 or visit the BHETA website at
www.bheta.co.uk.
Consumer Price Index The Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 1.8% in January 2020, increasing from 1.4% in December 2019.
Retail Sales In the three months to January 2020, the quantity bought in the retail sales industry fell by 0.8% when compared with the previous three months, with declines across all sectors. Retail volumes increased by 0.9% in January 2020, recovering from the falls in the previous two months.
Mortgage Approvals The number of mortgages approved for house purchase in the UK rose to 67,241 in December 2019 - the highest since July 2017 and compared with an upwardly revised 65,514 in the previous month and above market expectations of 65,700.
House Price Index UK average house prices increased by 2.2% over the year to December 2019, up from 1.7% in
November 2019. Average house prices increased over the year in England to £252,000 (2.2%), Wales to £166,000 (2.2%), Scotland to £152,000 (2.2%) and Northern Ireland to £140,000 (2.5%).
Labour Market The UK employment rate was estimated at a record high of 76.5% - 0.6 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.4 percentage points up on the previous quarter. The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.8% - 0.2 percentage points lower than a year earlier.
Construction Output Construction output increased by 0.5% in Quarter 4 (October to December) 2019 compared with Quarter 3 (July to September) 2019. This was driven by a 0.8% growth in new work, which offset a 0.1% fall in growth in repair and maintenance.
Commodity Prices Energy commodity prices reversed course in January, declining 3.1%. Non-energy prices
extended their gains - up 1.1% in January - with metals and minerals marginally higher.
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in February 2020 from 50.0 in the previous month, defying market consensus of 49.7, a preliminary estimate showed. The latest reading pointed to the strongest improvement in overall business conditions since April 2019, as output growth accelerated to a 10-month high and new work rose at the fastest pace since March 2019.
Reuters FX Analysis Sterling was steady through February until February 29, averaging 1.314 USD and 1.18 EUR. 1 GBP = 1.17 EUR 1 GBP = 1.29 USD
Source: BHETA Economic Snapshot – March 2020
March/April 2020
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