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talkingtrade WILL JONESHousewares Sector Director of the British Home Enhancement Trade Association (BHETA) Taking a look behind the headlines


when you look around the High Street and see big names like Maplin in trouble, you find yourself viewing all growth statistics with unease. So BHETA’s recent Housewares Forum was


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particularly timely. Held in late February, it included speakers from the Bank of England and the CBI (Confederation of British Industry), who shared their interpretations of the situation. Their narrative was this: the global economy is


growing at the fastest pace in seven years, and the UK’s net trade is being supported by the low pound. Against this buoyant global backdrop, surveys show strong output growth in the quarter to February. However, the average UK consumer continues to be squeezed by higher inflation, which in turn


atest retail sales figures from the ONS (Office for National Statistics) still show evidence of growth, albeit slow. But


creates challenging conditions for retailers. So, while the overall outlook remains one of modest growth, the homewares sector is being undermined by weak consumer spending. Certain sub-sectors continue to outperform,


such as decorative accessories and home fragrances. These are benefitting from fewer people moving to new houses and increasing numbers of long-term renters improving their existing spaces. Much of the potential in these difficult trading


circumstances remains down to the retail model, however. Online homewares sales are forecast to rise.


Pureplay (online only) retailers such as Amazon, Very.co.uk and Wayfair.co.uk will help drive such sales, especially as they invest in improving the convenience aspect of online shopping via shorter delivery times and lower delivery charges.


And multichannel retailers such as Next and Tesco have invested in their online offers through the launch of delivery saver schemes. Many successful homewares retailers, however,


do not offer transactional websites at all such as ‘discount’ retailers such as B&M, Lidl and Poundland – but they will support market growth as consumers look to trade down. On the more upmarket High Street, the right


combination of in-store experience, convenience and customer service can still prove massively appealing. Female consumers are more demanding than their male counterparts, and find all these store drivers important. Overlay all that with the fact that 25-34-year-


olds are frequent homewares purchasers - and that such young shoppers are influenced by fast- changing interior trends – then this demographic is clearly one to watch.


Consumer Price Index January 2018 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 2.7% in January 2018, unchanged from December 2017. The largest downward contribution to change in the rate came from prices for motor fuel, which rose by less than they did a year ago. The main upward effect came from prices for a range of recreational and cultural goods and services. The CPI 12-month rate was 3% in January 2018, unchanged from December 2017.


Retail Sales January 2018 In January 2018, the underlying pattern in retail sales, as suggested by the three-month on three-month measure, is one of slow growth, with the quantity bought increasing by 0.1%: the lowest growth since April 2017. The monthly growth rate for the quantity bought increased by 0.1% with declines across all main sectors except non-food stores. When compared with January 2017, the quantity bought in January 2018 increased by 1.6%: a slowdown to year-on-year growth when compared with an increase of 2.4% in January 2017. The main contribution to the year-on-year growth came from non-food stores, with sports equipment, games and toys increasing sales in the quantity bought in this sector by 10.9%.


Mortgage Approvals December 2017 The number of mortgages approved for house purchase in the UK fell to 61,039 in December 2017 from a downwardly revised 64,712 in the previous month. The figure came in below market


expectations of 66,000 and hit the lowest level since January 2015 - a month after the Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates for the first time in more than a decade.


House Price Index December 2017 Average house prices in the UK increased by 5.2% in the year to December. The annual growth rate has slowed since mid-2016 but has remained broadly around 5% during 2017. The main contribution to the increase in UK house prices came from England, where house prices increased by 5% over the year to December 2017, with the average price in England now £244,000. Wales saw house prices increase by 5.4% over the last 12 months to stand at £154,000. In Scotland, the average price increased by 7.7% over the year to stand at £149,000. The average price in Northern Ireland currently stands at £130,000, an increase of 4.3% over the year to Quarter 4, 2017.


Labour Market October - December 2017 Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that between July - September 2017 and October - December 2017, the number of people in work and the number of unemployed people both increased. But the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work decreased. There were 32.15 million people in work, 88,000 more than for July - September 2017 and 321,000 more than for a year earlier. The employment rate was 75.2%, up from a year earlier (74.6%). The unemployment rate was 4.4%, down from 4.8% for a year earlier.


Construction Output January 2018 Construction output continued its recent decline in the three months to December 2017, contracting for the eighth consecutive period in the three-month on three-month series, falling by 0.7%. This fall of 0.7% for Quarter 4 2017 is the third consecutive quarter of decline, representing the most sustained fall in quarterly construction output since Quarter 3 2012. Despite falling in both the three-month on three- month and quarter-on-quarter time series, construction output grew in the month-on-month series, increasing by 1.6% in December 2017.


Commodity Prices January 2018 Commodity prices rose across the board in January 2018, led by energy commodity prices, which surged 9.2%. Non-energy prices rose 3.3%. Raw materials prices increased 2.8%, food prices 2.6%, and beverages 1.1%. Both base and precious metals prices rose more than 5%.


Foreign Exchange Analysis Reuters - February 26 2018 The dollar rose against most currencies except the Euro in choppy trading on February 26, ahead of a slew of US economic data and events including Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s first congressional testimony.


1 GBP = 1.13 EUR 1 GBP = 1.39 USD


Source: BHETA Economic Snapshot – February 2018


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