Monday February 4 2019 THE NATIONAL MOTORCYCLE MUSEUM, BIRMINGHAM


talking trade Note that this data is derived from turnover


totals, so inflation is built into them - yet inflation accounts for only half of that increase. This implies real overall growth. The only subsectors showing absolute declines


across 2018 were booze and fags, independent clothing and footwear, computers and telecoms. Household goods stores showed turnover growth of 5.1%, with small businesses leading the way. The BDO High Street Sales Tracker [which outlines


But it has fallen by a third since 2012. But, again, it has doubled since 2008. With so many variables (and there are hundreds of thousands of As and Bs in the UK), how can we explain anything at all, as we don’t have the opportunity to carry out careful, detailed historical research every day? One way is to rely on the equivalent of satellite


surveillance, looking down on the oceans from above. The closest we have to that is the ONS (Office for National Statistics). So what does it have to say? While we will have seen the overall ONS figures


for UK retail by the time this article is published, those to the end of November show that overall figures for UK retail (including online) were up by 4.3%, with small businesses up 6.1% year on year.


the weekly sales changes of more than 85 retailers with some 10,000 individual stores] reported that reported that “homeware sales were the lone bright star on the high street and grew by +9.3% in December”. Non-store retailing, where pureplay e- tailer sales figures are reported, was up 12.1% in the 12 months up to the end of December and accounted for the lion’s share of growth. I sometimes hear comments to the effect that ONS figures can’t be trusted, particularly from those who find that the data does not suit their arguments. This is despite the fact that ONS retail data is derived from a cohort of 5,000 retailers, of which nearly 1,000 are multiples, which provides a sample from more than 80% of the expenditure in the market. Nobody has yet risen to the challenge of identifying a more substantial source of current retail data, so if you know a bigger and better source, let me know. Over the long term, of course, it’s the suppliers


altogether who can best gauge growth and decline, from their sales into all parts of the retail market (but they are not, unsurprisingly, saying). UK retail is huge and complex. So to get our heads around what’s really happening, we need an all-encompassing metaphor to express it. This maritime metaphor may not be the best one to replace Life & Death. But without some way of visualising the whole story, we’re all still at sea.


*Source: “Simplicity and probability in causal explanation”. Tania Lombrozo, ‘Cognitive Psychology’, 2006.


• Michael Weedon is chair of the FSB [Federation of Small Businesses] Retail and High Streets Policy Unit and managing director of exp2 Ltd, which carries out projects including research and report creation for clients in the retail industry, including data providers, place managers and individual retailers. He established exp2 in 2016 from a leading trade association role.


Michael’s contact details are: Mobile: 07411 763 551 Email: Michael.weedon@exp2.co.uk Tw: @michaelweedon


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