talking trade
and Euro, especially when they are attributed to the to-ing and fro-ing in Westminster over the Brexit deal - or ‘no deal’ as the case may be. So, for a more valid and valuable insight into the economic scene, it’s probably preferable to focus on other things. Namely, statistics that reflect people’s real lives, and how real people and real businesses actually feel about the situation. An increasingly positive performance in construction is usually good news for the home improvement and enhancement industries, as its success can ultimately lead to consumers being stimulated to invest in their homes.
F
ew observers are going to show much surprise about the ongoing fluctuations in the value of sterling against the dollar
Monday February 4 2019 THE NATIONAL MOTORCYCLE MUSEUM, BIRMINGHAM
WILL JONESHousewares Sector Director of the British Home Enhancement Trade Association (BHETA) Meanwhile, back in the real world… Therefore it’s good to note that the combined
level of new work and repair and maintenance reached £13,995 million last autumn - a record high since the monthly records began in January 2010. Back in retail, the figures don’t look so positive for autumn/winter. But we do have to remember that the amazing summer of 2018 had such a positive impact that declines from those highs are probably inevitable. So, what about the instincts of the industry?
BHETA held one of its regular credit forums not long before Christmas and interestingly, it was the best attended such event ever, with 20 housewares and DIY suppliers around the table. While cynics could argue that it’s the challenging
nature of our times that motivated such a turnout (with finance directors keen to hear the latest on
debtor days, who is ‘on stop’ and the like), the general conversation was in fact more upbeat. Inevitably, certain retail names were mentioned - as they always are - but very much in the context of starting or restarting relationships in the wake of new investments. The talk was all about mutual support yielding mutual benefit, and the overall conclusion was that while times may still be testing, business is actually okay; potentially hard work, but definitely still rewarding. After all, sales will certainly go somewhere, even if not always to the same places as used to be the case. Maybe there are occasions when gut feel, based
on real world experience, has more to tell us than official reports or media scare stories.
Consumer Price Index October 2018 The large downward contributions to the change in the 12-month rate came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing and footwear, and some transport elements were offset by upward contributions from rising petrol, diesel and domestic gas prices. Other smaller upward contributions came from items in the miscellaneous goods and services, recreation and culture and communication sectors. The Consumer Price Index 12-month rate was 2.4% in October 2018, unchanged from September 2018..
Retail Sales October 2018 In the three months to October 2018, the quantity bought in retail sales increased by 0.4% compared with the previous three months - a slowdown in growth compared with the strong summer sales, which reached a high of 2.3% in the three months to July. In October 2018, the quantity bought fell by 0.5% compared with September 2018, with a strong decline of 3.0% in household goods stores following a particularly strong August and September. The year-on-year average store price for fuel continued
to increase in October 2018 to
11.4%.This is the 26th consecutive month to show an increase. Online sales as a total of all retailing increased to 18.0% from 17.7% reported in September 2018, with textile, clothing and footwear stores continuing a record proportion of online sales at 18.2%.
Mortgage Approvals October 2018 Gross mortgage lending across the residential market in October 2018 was £25.5bn, some 5.6% higher than October 2017.
The number of mortgages approved by the main high street banks in October 2018 was 4.1% lower than October 2017. Although approvals for house purchase were 3.6% higher, remortgage approvals were 13.5% lower and approvals for other secured borrowing were 1.3% lower.
House Price Index September 2018 Average house prices in the UK increased by 3.5% in the year to September 2018, up from 3.1% in August 2018. However, over the past two years, there has been a slowdown in UK house price growth, driven mainly by a slowdown in the south and east of England. The lowest annual growth was in London, where prices fell by 0.3% over the year, up from a fall of 0.6% in the year to August 2018.
Labour Market July - September 2018 Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that from April to June 2018 and July to September 2018, the number of people in work and the number of unemployed people both increased - but the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking nor available to work was little changed. There were 32.41 million people in work, 23,000 more
compared with April to June 2018 and 350,000 more than a year earlier. The employment rate was 75.5% - little changed compared with April to June 2018 but higher than a year earlier (75.0%). The unemployment rate was 4.1% - slightly higher than for April to June 2018 but lower than a year earlier (4.3%).
Construction Output
September 2018 Construction output continued to recover following a relatively weak start to the year, increasing by 2.1% in Quarter 3 (July to September) 2018. This followed a fall of 1.6% in Quarter 1 (January to March) 2018 and an increase of 0.8% in Quarter 2 (April to June) 2018. Construction output increased by 1.7% between
August and September 2018. This was driven by an increase in all new work which increased by 2.8%; this was partly offset by a fall of 0.3% in repair and maintenance. The level of the all work series for September 2018
reached £13,995 million – a record high since the monthly records began in January 2010.
Commodity Prices October 2018 Commodity prices mostly rose in October 2018, with energy commodities rising 1.3% and non-energy commodities rising 1.2%.
Foreign Exchange Analysis Reuters - November 27 2018 Sterling slumped against the dollar and the Euro on November 27 as doubts grew about whether British Prime Minister Theresa May could get a Brexit agreement through a divided parliament.
1 GBP = 1.128 EUR 1 GBP = 1.282 USD
Source: BHETA Economic Snapshot –November 2018
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January/February 2019
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