Above left: Oak boules ready for shipment Above right: The UK is France’s biggest customer for oak lumber but not for softwoods
What these figures do not show, is the sudden slowdown in volumes on the last trimester of 2022 but most export destinations reduced their orders at the end of the year. This can be seen in the January 2023 volumes. Most buyers had by then slowed their purchases and, as a result, France’s global sales were down by more than 26% on the same month last year. Sawmills servicing the ready-to-fit carpentry sector or supplying big projects are not reporting any hard slowdown as oak still represents a small project cost percentage in these markets. But those working with retail and traders are reported to be experiencing a more difficult situation. This year, say mills, will be a time to rebuild depleted inventories following the booming demand of 2021 into 2022, but they will have to meet high log costs, so prices should remain firm. Otherwise production will be reined back, as is already the case in North America.
BEECH EXPORTS
French exports of beech lumber have followed a similar pattern as the oak market: a 14% drop between 2017 and 2020, followed by two years of strong growth (+30% between 2020 and 2022).
Belgium is the main importer of this
lumber, but the country is mainly a ‘logistic hub’: most of the volume is being shipped off to China from the port of Anvers. Except for a few countries, most major buyers upped purchasing last year; on the Asian markets, China was still very dynamic, unlike Vietnam, which started to slow down earlier in the year.
As with oak sales, exports of beech started to slow down at the end of the year. Similarly, January figures show a drop of almost 20% against last year.
On the softwood market, things have evolved differently. The market was growing steadily between 2017 and 2019 (+6%) before seeing a 16% boom in 2020. Belgium and the Netherlands were very dynamic export markets and fuelled most of this hike. In 2021,
volumes gained another 3% but the market was already showing signs of slowdown from August onwards.
In 2022 global demand dropped and, apart from a few months, export levels remained lower than for the two previous years. Most customers for this lumber are European and are all experiencing similar market slowdowns. January volumes were down 38% on 2022.
RESOURCE AND PRODUCTION France’s forest cover is 17.3 million hectares, around 31% of the total land area. Total wood in 2021 was 40 million m3 Of this, 10 million m3
. was destined for pulp, another 10 million m3 for the energy
market. The rest went to sawmills or other processing industries, such as panel or veneer production.
The forest comprises 72% hardwood and 28% softwood and 76% is held by private forest owners. Oak accounts for more than 24% of the total resource, followed by beech at 9% and chestnut 5%. The main softwood species each represent around 7% of standing wood volume, with Douglas fir at 3%.
Annual (debarked) saw log output is estimated at 24.3 million m3 lumber output at 8 million m3
, with sawn , according
to 2020 figures from the timber research institute FCBA (
www.fcba.fr). Excluding sleepers and squared logs, annual production of lumber is estimated at around 1.3 million m3 million m3
of hardwoods (0.65 oak, 330,000m3
poplar) and 7.3 million m3 million m3
Scots pine). INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
In our unstable times, it’s a challenge to make hard and fast predictions for the industry.
The hardwood market should regain momentum as it suffered less of a slowdown, and this was in part due to importers’ earlier
beech, 220,000m3 of softwood (4.11
for Douglas fir and 1.18 million m3
for spruce and fir, 1.36 million m3 of
overstocking in the market boom. Also, French hardwood mills have a broad customer base, allowing them to diversify output. The current sales trend looks like the market stabilising and coming back to ‘normal’ levels.
The softwood market is more uncertain as it suffered a drastic drop in demand for several months and significant price deflation. Also, with decreased demand in the US, a lot of volume previously exported is now staying in Europe, where there is now intense competition. Particularly in the packaging sector, vendors are also seeing cheap offers from Ukrainian and eastern European producers trying grow share of the French market. As an association dedicated to the promotion of French lumber products in export markets, French Timber is trying to help its members to find new destinations and new opportunities. The key is to find profitable partnerships in countries that might represent less global volume but offer reliable and stable markets.
Currently we are focusing on high potential countries such as India and Indonesia where we have been successfully marketing our products for several years. The end of the Covid restrictions means we were also able to return to Vietnam for an exhibition this year and China will follow in September. For our softwood members, we are looking at prospects in the Middle East and Africa. Also, we could consider trying to gain share of existing markets where we are not active enough.
The UK for instance is our biggest customer for oak lumber, but we have very little presence in its softwood market. It could provide opportunities for developing new partnerships with importers of first and second transformation softwood lumber products. ■
FURTHER INFORMATION For more information:
www.frenchtimber.com
www.ttjonline.com | July/August 2023 | TTJ
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