PLANNING YOUR 2026 PRICING IN THE CURRENT MACRO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT


Source: The Yale Budget Lab (https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us- tariffs-september-4-2025)


This affects virtually every aspect of foodservice: imported specialty ingredients, equipment, packaging materials, and even basic commodities that form the backbone of menu offerings.


2. Uncertainty


Planning Your 2026 Pricing in the Current Macro-Economic Environment Fred Puech, Founder, Keenalytix


Introduction


New tariffs + macro uncertainty + economy slowing down = not easy to make pricing decisions for next year. Yet, it needs to be done.


For foodservice professionals, these challenges hit particularly hard. Your supply chains span the globe, your margins are already tight, and your customers—whether restaurants, institutional buyers, or consumers—are increasingly price-sensitive.


We’ll start with a review of the current macro environment, then discuss what it means for foodservice businesses, and finally develop an action plan for your 2026 pricing strategy.


Part 1: Macro-Economic Update 1. Tariffs


The new tariffs implemented by the US in 2025 have fundamentally altered the cost structure for foodservice operations. After months of adjustments, tariffs have settled at an effective rate of 17.4% as of September 2025—a level not seen since 1935. The word “unprecedented” is justified here.


Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ USEPUINDXM#)


3. Economic Forecast


The outlook calls for economic slowdown and higher inflation in Q4 2025 and the first half of 2026. The second half of 2026 is expected to improve from both growth and inflation perspectives, but that’s still months away.


Macro-economic uncertainty remains at levels last seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. While it has decreased from April 2025 peaks, it’s still at heights not experienced in the prior 40 years. For foodservice decision-makers who lived through 2020-2021, this feels familiar…and that’s exactly the problem.


WHAT’S IN STORE | 2026 © 2026 International Dairy Deli Bakery Association


Industry Landscape


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