PAGE HEADER
GOLDILOCKS GOES TO MARKET: THE “JUST RIGHT” EVOLUTION OF PRIVATE LABEL IN EVERY DEPARTMENT
Four-Year Performance
Department Private Label Growth (4YA)
Goldilocks Goes to Market: The “Just Right” Evolution of
Private Label in Every Department Tom Barnes, CEO, Category Partners, LLC
For the last two years, the marketplace has navigated inflation, new habits and changing ideas of value. Shoppers are changing, too. In today’s grocery store, “just right” is a moving target. Customers go from one department to the next, weighing experience, trust and quality in different ways across the store.
Private label remains a strong option for value-seeking shoppers, and the latest 52-week data through October 2025 shows that it continues to grow in bakery, dairy and deli. These increases appear alongside stable national brand performance in the center of the store, where recognition and long-established habits continue to guide shoppers.
Looking at the Numbers
Category Partners looked into U.S. retail data for the 52 weeks ending October 25, 2025. We compared current results to both last year and four years ago.
Year-Over-Year Performance Department
Private Label Growth (YoY)
Bakery Dairy Deli
+4.3%
+10.1% +5.8%
Center Store +1.0% Na-
tional Brand Growth (YoY)
+1.6% +5.3% +0.1% +1.9%
Bakery Dairy Deli
Center Store
Private Label Volume (YoY)
+2.0% –0.7% +2.6% –1.4%
National Brand Volume
(YoY)
+0.5% +1.5% –1.7% –1.6%
Over four years, private label has grown faster than national brands across all departments. Bakery and deli also show real unit expansion for private label. These patterns represent steady growth from a smaller base, while branded products continue to account for a larger share of total category dollars.
Bakery Dairy Deli
Center Store
Department +40%
+40.3% +34.2% +32.9%
+25.3% +23.9% +14.9% +23.7%
+12.2% –7.0%
+12.2% –3.6%
Volume (4YA)
+3.4% +3.7% –2.2% –4.5%
National Brand- Growth (4YA)
Private Label Volume
(4YA)
National Brand
Private-
Label Dollar Share 46.8% 35.3% 30.6% 14.4%
Fresh departments show lasting strength. Center store remains steady but depends heavily on promotions. The takeaway is not which side is winning. It is how shoppers now define “better” in each department.
How “Just Right” Changes From Aisle to Aisle
Quality has never meant just one thing. Bakery and deli goods often signal the freshness of in-store or regional preparation. In dairy, it leans toward purity and consistency. In center store, it relates to brand familiarity and habit.
The 2025 data reinforce the department-level differences between private label and branded performance. Fresh departments show private label dollar gains that are not tied only to heavy discounting. In dairy, rising private label dollars alongside modest unit softness suggest some movement into higher-priced items. In the center of the store, national brands continue to benefit from strong promotion strategies that keep shopper attention.
WHAT’S IN STORE | 2026 © 2026 International Dairy Deli Bakery Association
Industry Landscape
33
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86
