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GOLDILOCKS GOES TO MARKET: THE “JUST RIGHT” EVOLUTION OF PRIVATE LABEL IN EVERY DEPARTMENT


Four-Year Performance


Department Private Label Growth (4YA)


Goldilocks Goes to Market: The “Just Right” Evolution of


Private Label in Every Department Tom Barnes, CEO, Category Partners, LLC


For the last two years, the marketplace has navigated inflation, new habits and changing ideas of value. Shoppers are changing, too. In today’s grocery store, “just right” is a moving target. Customers go from one department to the next, weighing experience, trust and quality in different ways across the store.


Private label remains a strong option for value-seeking shoppers, and the latest 52-week data through October 2025 shows that it continues to grow in bakery, dairy and deli. These increases appear alongside stable national brand performance in the center of the store, where recognition and long-established habits continue to guide shoppers.


Looking at the Numbers


Category Partners looked into U.S. retail data for the 52 weeks ending October 25, 2025. We compared current results to both last year and four years ago.


Year-Over-Year Performance Department


Private Label Growth (YoY)


Bakery Dairy Deli


+4.3%


+10.1% +5.8%


Center Store +1.0% Na-


tional Brand Growth (YoY)


+1.6% +5.3% +0.1% +1.9%


Bakery Dairy Deli


Center Store


Private Label Volume (YoY)


+2.0% –0.7% +2.6% –1.4%


National Brand Volume


(YoY)


+0.5% +1.5% –1.7% –1.6%


Over four years, private label has grown faster than national brands across all departments. Bakery and deli also show real unit expansion for private label. These patterns represent steady growth from a smaller base, while branded products continue to account for a larger share of total category dollars.


Bakery Dairy Deli


Center Store


Department +40%


+40.3% +34.2% +32.9%


+25.3% +23.9% +14.9% +23.7%


+12.2% –7.0%


+12.2% –3.6%


Volume (4YA)


+3.4% +3.7% –2.2% –4.5%


National Brand- Growth (4YA)


Private Label Volume


(4YA)


National Brand


Private-


Label Dollar Share 46.8% 35.3% 30.6% 14.4%


Fresh departments show lasting strength. Center store remains steady but depends heavily on promotions. The takeaway is not which side is winning. It is how shoppers now define “better” in each department.


How “Just Right” Changes From Aisle to Aisle


Quality has never meant just one thing. Bakery and deli goods often signal the freshness of in-store or regional preparation. In dairy, it leans toward purity and consistency. In center store, it relates to brand familiarity and habit.


The 2025 data reinforce the department-level differences between private label and branded performance. Fresh departments show private label dollar gains that are not tied only to heavy discounting. In dairy, rising private label dollars alongside modest unit softness suggest some movement into higher-priced items. In the center of the store, national brands continue to benefit from strong promotion strategies that keep shopper attention.


WHAT’S IN STORE | 2026 © 2026 International Dairy Deli Bakery Association


Industry Landscape


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