CIRCANA BAKERY OUTLOOK
Bakery Review of 2025 & Outlook for 2026: Bailey Furtado, Senior Fresh Foods Industry Analyst,
Circana
The total bakery department has continued to be relatively flat in 2025 with about flat in dollar sales (+0.1%) and a slight decline in units (-1.5%). HH pen has remained flat for overall bakery at
99.4 for YTD 2025, while dollars per trip and trips per buyers have increased. Consumers are highly engaged with Bakery and continue to increase their spend. “Bakery is well poised as consumers are seeking a balance between indulgence and wellness. We are seeing pockets of growth in Keto, gluten-free, high protein and organic in addition to novel formats e.g. half loaf, portion-controlled or on-the-go,” says Melissa Altobelli, Senior Vice President Dairy and Bakery at Circana.
Center Store Bakery YTD 2025 is underperforming against total bakery, with dollars decreasing at - 1.9% vs YA and units -3.1%. Morning Bakery sees the least performance declines within Center Store Bakery - as consumers continue to engage and balance indulgence, it is the largest growth in product trips per buyer in for Center Store bakery. Growth pockets for Center Store bakery include Croissants, Pastry/Danish/Coffee Cakes and Wraps/ Flatbreads. Croissants see dollars and units seeing growth at over 3%, the largest growth in Center Store bakery. Pastry/Danish/ Coffee Cakes see slight unit growth at +0.1% vs YA, while dollars are slightly down at -0.4%. Wraps/Flatbreads remain flat for dollars and units, which is a positive as it is outpacing Center Store Bakery performance. “Center Store breads fueled decline in 2025, impacted by diet trends like Keto, the increase in GLP-1 usage which highlights the importance of managing carbs, the growth in alternative sandwich carriers, and consumers opting for perimeter breads which create restaurant-like experiences at home,” Altobelli stated.
Perimeter Bakery on the other hand is fueling the overall Bakery growth, seeing YTD 2.7% growth in dollars and +1.2% growth in units. All aisles of Perimeter Bakery are seeing growth which include Breads & Rolls, Morning Bakery and Desserts/Sweet Snacks. The category growth leaders in Perimeter Bakery that see growth in dollars and units YTD for 2025 are Croissants, English Muffins, Brownies/Squares, Cakes, Donuts, Muffins and Pastry/Danish/Coffee Cakes. Again, showcasing the consumer growth in engagement for both Morning Bakery, which sees the largest growth in HH Pen at +2.2pts growth YTD 2025 vs. YA, and Desserts/Sweet Snacks, which see +0.1pts in HH growth. Altobelli shares, “Perimeter muffins were a standout category in 2025, offering a variety of options in both size (mini and full) and flavor while also providing an affordable price point.”
Croissants are up in center store and perimeter in 2025. This speaks to the importance of understanding food trends, not just location trends. Croissants can be used to elevate many occasions like breakfast, desserts, or even as bread for a sandwich. An item that can be used in multiple ways will make it in the shoppers’ baskets more often, YTD seeing center store croissants trip growth by +9.8% and perimeter croissants by +8.5% trip growth- one of the highest in overall bakery. “Expansion of usage occasion is key to unlocking incremental growth in this department”, says Altobelli, “We saw similar trends in Cottage Cheese with new usage occasions fueled by social media.”
Going into 2026, bakery will likely see challenges like combatting quick service restaurants as they are offering deals to win the lunch occasion; the impact of ongoing health and wellness trends; and consumers continuing to buy less units to meet budgetary constraints. The bakery department still has an opportunity in meeting consumers’ balanced desire for both health and indulgence.
WHAT’S IN STORE | 2026 © 2026 International Dairy Deli Bakery Association
IDDBA Reports
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