PLANNING YOUR 2026 PRICING IN THE CURRENT MACRO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT (CONT.)
3. The Economic Forecast Creates a Pricing Paradox
Slow growth combined with high inflation puts foodservice operators in an impossible position:
• Slow growth means limited opportunities for price increases and heightened price sensitivity from customers
• High inflation demands passing through cost increases to maintain profitability
• The solution: Take only what you absolutely need in price increases. 2026 won’t be the year to drive bottom-line growth through aggressive pricing.
Part 3: 2026 Foodservice Pricing Action Plan
1. Quantify Your Exposure Build an exposure scorecard using a 1-10 scale for these critical questions:
Supply Chain Exposure:
• How much of your food costs come from imported ingredients or products with imported components?
• What percentage of your equipment, packaging, and supplies are imported?
• How many of your key suppliers rely heavily on imported inputs? Contract Protection:
• What percentage of your imports are under fixed-price contracts?
• How long do these contracts run, and when do they renew?
• Do your supplier agreements include force majeure clauses for tariff changes? Customer Exposure:
• How exposed are your B2B customers (restaurants, institutions) to these same pressures?
• What’s the price sensitivity of your end consumers?
• How much pricing flexibility do you have with different customer segments?
2. Build Realistic Pricing Scenarios Develop three scenarios for 2026:
Conservative Scenario: Minimal price increases, focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction. Suitable for highly price- sensitive segments or where you have limited pricing power.
Moderate Scenario: Selective price increases on items with lower elasticity, combined with value engineering on high-elasticity products. This balances margin protection with volume retention.
Aggressive Scenario: Full cost pass-through on tariff-affected items, but only where you have strong customer relationships or unique value propositions.
The key: base these scenarios on actual customer behavior data, not assumptions. If you don’t have this data, invest in gathering it now; it’s critical for 2026 planning.
3. Stay Flexible and Communicate Transparently
Avoid “set it and forget it” pricing. Plan quarterly price reviews instead of annual increases. This allows you to: • Adjust as economic conditions change • Test customer acceptance in smaller increments • Respond to competitive actions more quickly
Communicate proactively with customers. Explain the economic pressures you’re facing. B2B customers especially understand supply chain challenges and appreciate transparency over surprise price increases.
Focus on value, not just price. Use this period to strengthen customer relationships by demonstrating how you’re working to minimize their pain, even if you can’t eliminate it entirely.
Conclusion
The best strategy for foodservice in this environment is defensive. This isn’t the time to aim for double-digit growth through pricing. Instead, focus on protecting both volume and margins through balanced pricing decisions.
Remember: your customers, whether restaurant chains, institutional buyers, or individual consumers, face the same economic pressures you do. Success in 2026 comes from navigating these challenges together, not trying to maintain previous profit levels at their expense.
The operators who emerge stronger from this period will be those who made thoughtful, data-driven pricing decisions while maintaining the customer relationships that drive long-term success.
About the Author
Fred Puech is a pricing analytics expert and the founder of Keenalytix, a boutique consultancy specialized in pricing and sales analytics for foodservice and ecommerce businesses. Over his 18 years of experience in pricing as a consultant, Fred has successfully completed more than 120 pricing projects, with B2B and B2C businesses alike, across a wide range of industries. He has worked with over twenty leading and emerging QSR and fast casual brands, as well as with several major food manufacturers. Fred is also an active member of the Professional Pricing Society and a regular speaker at their conferences. Fred has a PhD and MSc in Economics.
WHAT’S IN STORE | 2026 © 2026 International Dairy Deli Bakery Association
Industry Landscape
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