CIRCANA DELI OUTLOOK (CONT.)
“Shoppers are making more trips to a wider variety of stores and buying less items- the personalization and experience of ordering at the lunchmeat counter may not be as important for many consumers just looking to save time and money. We are also seeing fresh foods share growth in channels like Mass/ Supercenter, Value Grocers and Club stores who do not have clerk-service delis. The service case still plays a vital role in many grocers in experience and giving a fresh signal - but with labor challenges and staffing shortages, we need to position all types of deli lunchmeat for future growth,” said Parker.
On the other hand, deli cheese year to date 2025 ending 11-30-25 saw growth in overall sales, dollars up +3.1% and pounds up +1.6% vs last year, outpacing total deli. Drivers for growth included deli specialty cheese, +6.5% in dollars & +5.7% in pounds, and deli grab & go cheese, +4.7% in dollars and +3.6% in pounds vs YA.
Draggers within deli cheese included service cheese, pre-sliced cheese, and dairy alternative cheese, both pre-sliced & specialty. Pricing for YTD 2025 saw a slight increase of 1.4%, just at par with total deli price increases vs. YA.
“Specialty cheese has become a go-to for a wide array of consumers and demographics – retailers doing the best in the space are offering an easier-to-shop experience with multiple sizes and price points. Leveraging in-store signage and recommendations as well as online, even QR code enabled, usage and pairing ideas provide the curated experience shoppers seek. Playing up the protein, natural and taste exploration shoppers crave or even going so far as to personalize deals and recommendations of trusted cheese mongers can further differentiate a space that is now offered well beyond grocery – specialty cheese is now reaching beyond grocery, showing up creatively in direct-to-consumer online channels and even convenience stores. Moderate growth in this space often reflects constraints in retailers’ assortment, pricing strategies, and marketing efforts—factors that could cap future potential.” Parker said.
Consumer pockets that are significant in buying deli meat currently include upper income households and older generations. Deli meat has significant opportunity in appealing and becoming relevant for the lower income families and the younger generations.
Deli Cheese is more evenly distributed in the consumer groups buying: generations are spread throughout Older Millennials- Older Boomers, are indexed highly in 2-3 person households with at least one child, as well as upper income. Similar to deli meat, there is a huge opportunity to continue and drive growth in deli cheese with the category evolving to fit the consumer needs that are relevant and are at the right price points.
“2025 will be a pivotal year for all of Deli –while baby boomers still have a large share of US wealth and discretionary spending, growth in the back half of the decade will come to retailers who realize waiting for Millennials and Gen Z to adapt to the older ways of shopping and eating are over. Deli is prime real estate to signal and set your chain’s image – not just in having the ‘freshest deli’ or ‘the most items’ but in an offering and experience that makes it unique and easy for all shoppers. Too often we debate logistics like making in store vs. commissary vs. third-party branded- yet, we see retailers and products made in each way growing in Deli. The companies and retailers who look deeply at how Americans eat today, especially both their core and occasional shoppers, and then innovate around those solutions in meat, cheese and prepared foods will be the short- and long-term winners,” predicted Parker.
WHAT’S IN STORE | 2026 © 2026 International Dairy Deli Bakery Association
IDDBA Reports
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