PAGE HEADER CIRCANA DAIRY OUTLOOK


Dairy Review of 2025 & Outlook for 2026: Bailey Furtado, Senior Fresh Foods Industry Analyst,


Circana


Dairy is a top selling industry in retail grocery, accounting for $85.7 billion year to date 2025 ending 11-30-25. This is a growth of +7.6% in dollar and +1.9% in units which sees improvement over 2024 performance. Dairy’s growth is outpacing total store, grocery and fresh within both dollar and unit sales growth. “Dairy is on-trend with products delivering on key consumer priorities,” says John Crawford, Senior Vice President of Dairy at Circana, “High protein, low/no sugar, lactose-free and clean ingredients are a few of the top needs where Dairy excels.”


11 of the Dairy15 categories grew in dollar sales year to date 2025 ending 11-30-25 compared to a year ago, and 8 out of the 15 grew in volume/unit sales. Many categories saw substantial volume growth like cottage cheese, yogurt and refrigerated whipped toppings. Cottage cheese continues to be an all-star for Dairy, seeing nearly 20% growth in dollars & over 14% volume growth YTD 2025 vs YA. Cottage cheese continued growth is fueled by consumer trends on social media of expanding different usages for the product but also by appealing to consumer health & nutritional goals of high protein, low calorie. Meanwhile, there is softness that is likely to continue in processed cheese and margarine with consumers moving away from less natural categories. “Cottage Cheese growth, driven by social media, provides a case study on the power of incremental use occasions in the home,” Crawford explains, “Additional occasions can lift an entire category.”


Pricing for Dairy has fluctuated throughout 2025. Year to date 2025 ending 11-30-25 sees a price per unit increase of 5.6% vs last year but has settled down in the back half of 2025, with the last 4wks ending 11-30-25 seeing a decrease of -4.2%. Price increases throughout 2025 are driven by refrigerated desserts, yogurt and cottage cheese, all seeing increases near or over 5% vs YA. The price deflation in the last 4 weeks is driven by eggs (-21%), butter (-7.3%), cream cheese (-4%), natural cheese (-3.4%), processed cheese (-2.7%) and milk (-0.5%). Crawford states, “Commodity input costs still drive price fluctuations in many categories, especially those with high Private Label share. …Consumers have shown they are willing to pay more for nutrient-dense products like those in Dairy.”


Dairy‘s overall growth is also seen across multiple consumer measures: buyers (+0.8%), product trips per buyer (+4.6%), dollars per buyer (+8%) and units per buyer (+2.6%). Dairy over indexes to older millennials (born 1981-1989), larger households with kids, and a household income greater than $100K, but it struggles with the younger generations and lower income households. How can Dairy continue to grow into these consumers? “Dairy is a very healthy business which is evident by growth in all main consumer metrics”, Crawford explains, “Heavy Dairy consumption continues to be driven by life stage, mainly the presence of children. As younger generations delay life stage transitions, Dairy will need to expand appeal to younger singles/couples and empty nesters.”


WHAT’S IN STORE | 2026 © 2026 International Dairy Deli Bakery Association


IDDBA Reports


93

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