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AIRLINE NEWS M1nd-set traffic analysis tool assesses virus impact


Widespread travel uncertainty amid the ongoing coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak has prompted Swiss research agency m1nd- set to develop a special traffic analysis tool. A unique module as part of its Business


1ntelligence Service (B1S) helps travel retail industry stakeholders, including many concerned m1nd-set clients, input any combination of scenarios to assess how their businesses may be affected by temporary route and border closures. It also allows for various levels of severity:


mild, moderate and severe, with varying degrees in the percentage decline of traffic demand to and from China, as well as demand around Asia and globally over the months of February, March and April. This can be assessed both for domestic


and international, separately or combined. To demonstrate the analysis, m1nd-set has


created three different models as samples of possible scenarios, where specific airlines,


airports, routes and borders have been restricted to, from, or within China. Looking at the impact on international


departures alone, global air traffic would see a 7.1% decline in the ‘mild’ scenario, a 9.6% drop in traffic in the ‘moderate’ scenario and a 15.2% decline in a ‘severe’ scenario. On a regional basis, should the impact on international pax be severe, potential


traffic declines are shown to be -38.1% (Asia Pac), -9.7% (MEA), -5.3% (Americas) and -4.5% (Europe). The same parameters in the moderate scenario show a 23.9% drop in Asia Pacific; -5.4% in the Middle East and Africa; -3.5% in the Americas and a 3% decline in Europe. The impact by region in the mild


scenario shows a potential 19.1% decline in international departures


within the


Asia Pacific region; a 3.4% decline in the Middle East and Africa; a -2.1% drop in the Americas and a -1.8% decline in Europe. In all scenarios, the impact of the


traffic restrictions on individual airports can be identified. [For more on the methodology behind m1nd- set’s Covid-19 scenarios tool, see TRBusiness.com].


European flight bookings sink on Italy situation


Flight cancellations to Italy surpassed new bookings to the country in the last week of February (23-29), ForwardKeys has revealed. Bookings to Italy plummeted by 138.7%,


resulting in cancellations exceeding the number of new bookings to the country. A sustained outbreak in North Italy


Source: Wikimedia, Aero Pixels. UK’s Flybe collapses as Covid-19 takes its toll


UK airline Flybe has entered administration. The Exeter-based airline, which served


routes across the UK and Europe, grounded its flights on 5 March. Widely reported excerpts from a letter


sent to staff by CEO Mark Anderson blame the coronavirus’ (Covid-19) impact on flight bookings, which compounded an already precarious financial position. Flybe, which carried around eight million


passengers per year, had been in talks with the UK government at the start of the year to secure rescue funding to continue trading, but terms could not be agreed. The airline was owned by Connect


Airways, a consortium comprised of Cyrus Capital, Virgin Atlantic and Stobart Group. In a notice, the airline advised all passengers not to travel to airports unless


FEBRUARY 2020


alternative flight arrangements were in place. Those passengers with bookings sold by


other airlines that include travel with Flybe have been told to contact their travel agent or airline. Richard Moriarty, Chief Executive at the


UK Civil Aviation Authority said: “This is a sad day for UK aviation and we know that Flybe’s decision to stop trading will be very distressing for all of its employees and customers. We urge passengers planning to fly with this airline not to go to the airport as all Flybe flights are cancelled. “Flybe also operated a number of


codeshare partnerships with international airlines. If you have an international ticket you should make contact with that airline to confirm your travel arrangements.”


TRBUSINESS 11


between 23-29 February triggered a volley of cancellations, which in turn prompted a 79% nosedive in new bookings to Europe from intercontinental source markets. The first Covid-19 case was confirmed in


Italy on 31 January. A cluster of cases were subsequently


detected in Lombardy in late February and Italy’s first deaths followed shortly after. At the time of writing, more than 7,300


people had tested positive for Covid-19 in Italy, with more than 366 deaths recorded.


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