Europe’s travel market Growth despite the challenges
discover”, and smaller organisations – though they suffer proportionately fewer attacks – are far more likely to be breached (Figures 43 and 44). The data breach of British Airways,
revealed in early September 2018, brought the dangers into sharp relief, with not just the card numbers and personal details of 380,000 customers compromised but the CVV card-security codes stolen. In the words of an aviation consultancy report: “The hyper- connected model of fast internet and digital engagement [creates] a larger attack surface for cyber criminals.” BA may be unfortunate to be the first
major travel company to suffer such a breach this side of the EU General Date Protection Regulation (GDPR) coming into force, but that only makes it more likely BA will feel the force the GDPR has bestowed on the UK Information Commissioner’s Office to impose a fine of up to 4% of global turnover – to say nothing of the lawsuits and bank compensation claims BA can expect.
Technological advances We are on the cusp of developments in technology that will transform the travel industry and much else besides – not least the labour market. Forecasts vary, but the Bank of England
has suggested the deployment of machine learning and associated technologies
EUROPEAN OUTBOUND MARKETS BY SPENDING All overnight trips
FIGURE 8: €bn
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0 *UK figure reflects changed £/€ exchange rate since June 2016 Figures rounded Source: Eurostat/ONS €77bn
€50bn (£45bn)
€24bn €14bn€13bn €12bn
Germany UK France
Switzerland Netherlands Spain
10% 9%
Market share 8% 5% €235bn
EU OUTBOUND SPENDING 2016
10% 21%* 33%
Germany UK France
Austria/Switzerland Belgium/Netherlands Denmark/
Finland/Sweden Spain
France Germany EU
Spain Italy UK
0
could replace 15 million UK jobs – half the workforce – by 2025. Travel and tourism are widely seen as a force for replacing lost jobs, though surely not at such a rate as this. More immediately, we are on the cliff edge of significant political change as Britain and the EU prepare, in somewhat shambolic fashion, for Brexit. The requirements to sort out air traffic rights, customs and border arrangements and EU-UK citizens’ rights are clear and urgent. In the circumstances it is reassuring to
note, as the business newspaper the Financial Times did in July 2018: “Senior EU officials accept that in the event of no deal [on Brexit] EU governments will not blindly enforce laws that threaten financial stability, ground air traffic or halt production.” Rather, EU officials propose “parachute arrangements” to be “unveiled at the last moment”. Whatever the immediate fall-out for travel,
GERMANY and the UK account for more than half of European outbound travel spending (Figure 8). The proportion of adults making overseas trips from the two biggest markets is almost four times the proportion in France (Figure 9).
we can expect Britain’s exit from the EU to cause a relatively brief shock unless there is a profound devaluation of sterling. The growing trade war between the US and China and developing financial crises in Turkey, Argentina and other ‘emerging’ economies may have more serious implications should one or the other trigger a slide into a global economic crisis. Yet the experience of the decade since the last financial meltdown suggests there is no reason to modify the conclusion of the 2017
BY % OF POPULATION All trips 2017 25%
44% 12% 43% 17% 13%
10 20 30 40 50% Source: Eurostat
10 | Travel Weekly Europe Report 2018 OVERNIGHT TOURISM FIGURE 9:
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