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Lube-Tech


Proper design of ATF matched with specific transmission can yield significant FE improvement


Figure 7: Fuel economy vs viscosity [17]


The transmission fluid industry is soaring in the U.S. and is projected to have a compound growth rate of 3.7%, reaching over 1.9 billion by 2025 [18]. The primary international competitor, China, is surpassing expectations and is on track to grow 5.3% over the next couple years [18]. China was prudent in forming alliances with strategic partners throughout history and was a leader in developing new machinery such as the 8-speed automatic transmission in 2007 [19]. Currently, China is focusing on fuel economy and is advocating AT as the preferred technological route [19]. They claim that the AT is the most developed technology compared to other transmissions and currently takes up more than 80% of the market share. Its driving torque range has the widest applications and is most suitable for heavy traffic environments in China [19]. Also, recent decades show that oil reserves have been increasing faster than consumption, which eliminates the concern for oil shortages [4].


However, China also looked in other directions and heavily pushed for the development of EVs in 2018


PUBLISHED BY LUBE: THE EUROPEAN LUBRICANTS INDUSTRY MAGAZINE


No.128 page 6


by providing considerable subsidies and incentives which drove up production and sales [12]. With a sluggish economy in 2019, China took their foot off the gas and decreased subsidies dramatically to encourage manufacturers to rely more on innovation rather than governmental assistance [20]. The EV market plummeted significantly, specifically the plug- in hybrids (PHEV), which dropped down 39% in the plug-in car market [21]. Amid these challenging times, all-electric BEV surprisingly rose 8% [21]. In 2020, China plans to phase out subsidies entirely which will give the market another setback. Nevertheless, it is plausible that in a few years, the automotive market in China will settle down and resume its dominance in this field. Overall, while AT vehicles are still dominant, electric cars are on the rise and both will be prominent for years to come which should alleviate concern in ATF markets for now.


Shengrui transmission production


Figure 8: China’s AT market forecast [19] BYD Auto Co., Ltd.’s electric car sales are showing


Figure 9: EV sales in 2019 [22]


LUBE MAGAZINE NO.157 JUNE 2020


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