OPEN HOUSE | AUTOMOTIVE
There could be more pressure on SMEs as the rise of EVs favours larger system suppliers. And finally, he suggested a possible easing of quality requirements from OEMs due to growth in shared mobility with, again, an additional focus on costs.
only around 3.5% of the total market, but by 2026, Cox said, the figure could be around 27%. Lukas Michor from McKinsey was the first of
several speakers to touch on disruptive technology-driven trends that could transform the car market: electrification, connectivity, autonomous vehicles, and “diverse mobility” – the growth of companies like Uber and car sharing among younger people. He also pointed to other continuously evolving trends, such as the emergence of Chinese OEMs on a global level and cost-cutting measures such as the reduction of separate platforms within individual OEMs and increasing use of modular systems. By 2030, Michor said, new business models driven by shared mobility, connectivity services and feature upgrades could expand automotive revenue pools by around 30%, adding up to $1.5trn. A custom-tailored model for car-sharing could achieve huge sales, he said. But vehicle units sales would still only grow at around 2% per year. By that time, 15% of new vehicles sold could be fully autonomous.
Michor identified four key drivers affecting EV
market dynamics: first, macroeconomics, and the projected return of higher oil prices; second, technology, and the reduction in battery prices; third, regulation and incentives covering emissions; and finally, increasing customer interest as EV prices fall and choice widens. He also highlighted the growth of a true Asian automotive industry (as opposed to Western transplants). Already in 2014, he noted, the majority of the top 100 Tier One suppliers (outside of tyres) were from Asia, with French and Japanese suppliers being the biggest losers. What does all this mean for the injection moulding community? Michor signalled three possibilities. OEMs could significantly increase their focus on costs, mainly driven by required investments into disruptive technology trends.
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Enhanced interiors Joerg Friedrich from Car Men in Germany predict- ed that interior concepts for cars intended for sharing would be different from today’s designs. And among future plastics trends, he identified many developments in what he termed “premium light.” His presentation was full of examples from concept cars showing tactile technologies and complex material combinations. He predicted big changes in decorated surfaces, with the use of special illumination effects being influenced by EVs, and diverse looks ranging from “metallic carbon” to burr finishes, making plastics less identifiable in interiors. “We are only at the begin- ning, we are still in the Stone Age,” he said. Volkert Wick, executive director for process
innovation and sales at Yanfeng Automotive Interiors (the joint venture owned by Johnson Controls and China’s SAIC), expects the growth of urban SUVs and the desire among increasingly wealthy Chinese consumers for luxury items to leave their mark. He said autonomous vehicles would create demand for interiors that can “morph” between different functions – for relaxation or meetings, for example. He also envisaged “smart” interior surfaces with seamless transitions. While Wick’s talk emphasised soft surfaces,
Continental’s principal technical expert for haptics and appearance, Andreas Brüninghaus, looked more at hard – but still seamless – display surfaces, which will be bigger, more three dimensional, and more cost-effective, thanks to injection moulding and technologies such as in-mould decoration. Staying with the theme of seamless transitions, Volvo’s technical leader for polymer materials, Per
Below: “Premium light” features in the Skoda Vision E Concept
Left: Christoph Steger, CSO, at Engel’s trend. scaut 2017 event
September 2017 | INJECTION WORLD 17
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