The Washington Post 146 20100808

A2 Politics & The Nation

The Democrats’ greatest hits ..................................................................A3 Push to revise 14th Amendment not gaining steam.............................A4 NASA’s attempt to fix cooling system fails.............................................A4 Nation Digest Executive leaving after iPhone flap .....................................................A3

The World

Castro gives first speech to Cuban parliament in four years .............A10 Letter from Mexico: An appeal to the masses .....................................A10 ‘Gray market’ is red hot in China...........................................................A11 Foreign Digest Data access deal to avert BlackBerry ban ..........................................A10

Opinion

Editorial: After the spill.........................................................................A14 Editorial: Spaced out .............................................................................A14 Editorial: Who’s minding the Metro board?........................................A14 David S. Broder: McConnell’s Senate defense .....................................A15 Jim Hoagland: Obama’s disconnect .....................................................A15 Hank Klibanoff: The glacial pace of Justice.........................................A15 John McCain: Time to ‘reset’ relations with Georgia..........................A15

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might have been the political equivalent of an earthquake. Instead, the relatively restrained response underscores both the singular economic focus of this year’s elections and the shifting politics of one of the country’s major social issues. Neither Democrats nor Republicans appear eager to try to turn the California decision into a November rallying cry. Many Democrats who otherwise strongly support gay rights are still reluctant to advocate for same-sex marriages, President Obama being the most prominent example. Many Republicans believe their conservative base is already well motivated. For now, they prefer to stay away from the kind of wedge-issue politics that were once a hallmark of their campaigns. Glen Bolger, a Republican

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pollster, said the ruling by Chief U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker declaring California’s Proposition 8 unconstitutional will have only a modest effect in motivating conservatives who care deeply about social issues. “They are already so stoked to vote in the election it is hard to imagine it will make a big difference,” he said. Geoff Garin, a Democratic

pollster, came to a similar conclusion. “The impact is minimal,” he said. “Certainly compared to what it might have been in other years and in other circumstances. The economy is such a dominant issue and people are so focused on the day-to-day challenges in life that I think this will pale in comparison.” That has often not been the case when the courts interjected social issues in the middle of a

t another time, the ruling overturning California’s ban on same-sex marriages

THE SUNDAY TAKE Dan Balz

Campaigns won’t shift focus to gay marriage

campaign year. In 1989, the Supreme Court’s decision in Webster v. Reproductive Health Services, which gave states the authority to restrict abortions, inflamed the off-year elections and became a central issue in campaigns across the country. The case triggered fears among abortion rights advocates that Roe v.Wade could be overturned. Republicans responded to the 2003 decision in Massachusetts legalizing same-sex marriages by launching ballot initiatives in many other states and stepping up calls for a federal constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman. Then-President George W. Bush endorsed the amendment during his 2004 reelection campaign. Eleven states approved such initiatives that year, and some analysts believe Bush won Ohio and therefore the election on the strength of conservative turnout, mobilized in part because of the marriage ban initiative on the ballot.

Focus on fiscal issues No such reaction appears

forthcoming to the California ruling. Republican candidates may use the California ruling to reach selected voters, but the strategy will be one of micro-targeting rather than broad messaging. Individual candidates in more conservative districts may highlight the issue and refer to the California decision, but few GOP leaders have stepped forward since Wednesday to suggest that this will become a major talking point for the fall. “Republicans are better off

focusing on fiscal issues — economy, spending, taxes, debt — in this political environment,” said a Republican who is helping to guide strategy for the party.

“For the first time in years, Republicans have regained their credibility as the party of fiscal responsibility, and most voters are concerned with the direction of our country’s economy, so it could backfire with independent voters if the campaigns get bogged down on immigration or marriage.” Friday’s unemployment report helped to put the campaign in perspective. The anemic jobs growth last month, coupled with a downward revision in the number of jobs created in June, underscored the sluggishness of the recovery and highlighted the central problem for Obama and Democrats this fall. Republican “swing voters are simply too preoccupied [with the economy] to care about the culture wars,” said Jim Jordan, a Democratic strategist. The battle over same-sex marriage can await another election. Both sides know that Walker’s sweeping ruling is but a first step in a legal conflict that will almost certainly end up in the Supreme Court. State rulings no longer have the impact that the Massachusetts decision did in 2003 because so many states have already acted. By now, 41 states have approved legislation defining marriage as between a man and a woman, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Thirty have put such language into their state constitutions. Including California, six states and the District allow same-sex couples to marry. Overall, public opinion remains opposed to same-sex marriages. But there has been a dramatic move toward greater support over the past decade, particularly in the last few years. Two Columbia University political scientists — Jeffrey R.

Lax and Justin H. Phillips — have tracked the movement and the results are available on the Web site www.fivethirtyeight.com.

Diversity of views Lax’s and Phillips’s research

reveals not only the change in public opinion, but also the widespread geographic diversity of views. Although opposition to gay marriage has diminished across the country over time, a year ago majority support existed in only a handful of Northeastern states and California. (Despite that, Prop 8 passed with 52 percent of the vote in California in 2008.) In some southern states, roughly three-quarters of the population still opposed same-sex marriages. More significant for the future is the deep generational divide. Lax and Phillips also charted public opinion by age. In 2008, there were 38 states where a majority of those between ages 18 and 29 expressed support for same sex marriages. In 23 states, at least 50 percent of those between ages 30 and 44 also backed such marriages. In no state were more than 35 percent of those over age 65 in favor of gay marriages. That’s the more telling reason

why Republicans are conflicted about how to handle the issue in the future. They know the issue can motivate conservatives. Privately many say they can see where the issue is heading and fear they will be on the losing side of public opinion at some point in the future. For this election, Republicans can concentrate happily on issues of the economy and government debt and deficits. The future will be more problematic both for tentative Democrats and wary Republicans.

balzd@washpost.com Kagan sworn in, will recuse herself from opening day case by Laura Blumenfeld

Vowing to “administer justice without respect to persons and do equal right to the poor and to the rich,” Elena Kagan was sworn in by Chief Justice John G. Rob- erts Jr. as the 112th justice to the Supreme Court on Saturday. She is the second justice Presi- dent Obama has placed on the nation’s highest court.

Kagan, 50, the Obama admin- PAUL J. RICHARDS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE VIA GETTY IMAGES

Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., right, congratulates Elena Kagan, who became the 112th U.S. Supreme Court justice Saturday. Jeffrey Minear, counselor to the chief justice, held the Bible for the oath.

istration’s solicitor general, suc- ceeds 90-year-old justice John Paul Stevens. The ceremony came two days after the Senate confirmed Kagan in a partisan vote of 63 to 37. She is the fourth female justice to serve on the high court.

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Widely considered a consen- sus-building liberal, Kagan is not expected to change the ideologi- cal balance of the court, which often splits 5 to 4 on key deci- sions. In the years ahead, the court is likely to hear contro- versial cases on such issues as immigration and same-sex mar-

riage. In her first term, Kagan will re-

cuse herself from several cases because of her work as solicitor general. On the court’s opening day, Oct. 4, she will disqualify herself from sitting on a case re- garding laws pertaining to man- datory minimum prison sentenc- es.

Democrats describe Kagan, the former dean of Harvard Law School, as a keen legal scholar. Republicans noted during her confirmation hearings that she has never been a judge and ques- tioned her politics as a policy ad- viser to former president Bill Clinton. The fourth new justice in five years, Kagan is part of a genera- tional shift taking place on the nine-member court. She is the fifth justice to have been born af- ter World War II. And her formal installation, which will take place at the start of the court’s new term, means that, for the first time in U.S. history, three women will share the bench. blumenfeldl@washpost.com

TALK SHOWS Guests to be interviewed Sunday on major television talk shows:

FOX NEWS SUNDAY (WTTG), 9 a.m. Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-Ind.); former Solicitor General Ted Olson, a plaintiffs’ attorney in California’s Proposition 8 fight;Washington area restaurateur Michael Landrum.

STATE OF THE UNION (CNN), 9 a.m. Govs. Jennifer Granholm (D-Mich.) and Robert F. McDonnell (R-Va.); retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad W. Allen, incident commander for the gulf oil spill.

THIS WEEK (ABC, WJLA), 10 a.m. Ray Odierno, commanding general of U.S. forces in Iraq; and Gen. Peter Chiarelli, Army vice chief of staff.

NEWSMAKERS (C-SPAN), 10 a.m. AFL-CIO President Richard L. Trumka.

FACE THE NATION (CBS, WUSA), 10:30 a.m. Retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad W. Allen.

MEET THE PRESS (NBC, WRC), 10:30 a.m. Reps. John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and Mike Pence (R-Ind.); former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-Tenn.); and White House energy adviser Carol M. Browner.

WASHINGTON WATCH (TV One), 11 a.m. The Rev. Jim Wallis, author of “Rediscovering Values”; Blair Taylor, president and chief executive of the Los Angeles Urban League; and Frank Martin, producer of “For Love of Liberty: The Story of America’s Black Patriots.”

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