FINANCE UK business optimism is still high
The Brexit and Trump effect have not dented UK business optimism as manufacturing confidence has reached a 20-month high, according to the latest Business Trends Report by accountants and business advisers BDO LLP. The latest report shows
continuing signs of encouraging economic prospects for the UK over the coming six months, despite uncertainty following the US Presidential Election and the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. BDO’s Optimism Index, which indicates how firms expect their order books to develop in the coming six months, continues to rise and now sits at 103.7 from 102.2 in December, above its long- term trend. The Optimism sub-indices for
both manufacturing and services were also higher last month, dismissing claims that the UK has a two-speed economy. Manufacturing’s sub-index has risen to 102.2 from 99.4, passing the 100 mark, which indicates growth, for the first time since June 2015. BDO’s Output Index - which
indicates how businesses expect their order books to develop in the next three months - has increased
While currency depreciation makes British exports more price competitive, firms’ input prices have risen sharply, squeezing margins. In January, Markit/CIPS PMI showed factory raw material costs rose at their fastest pace in over 25 years, a result of higher prices for oil, steel and other import costs. Tom Lawton (pictured), Partner
‘The UK economy seems to be remarkably resilient. British businesses are surprisingly confident about the short term’
for the third consecutive month, rising slightly from 97.4 to 97.5. BDO attributes the positive performance of UK businesses to an overall improvement in the global economy, the decrease in the value of sterling and better- performing key export markets. However, despite the immediate
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benefit of sterling’s sharp fall in value and the optimistic mood of UK businesses, sterling’s devaluation represents a double- edged sword as it continues to contribute to rising inflation. BDO’s Inflation Index has
increased to 104.5 from 103.8 and the upward trend is set to continue.
and Head, BDO Manufacturing at BDO LLP in the Midlands, said: “The UK economy seems to be remarkably resilient. British businesses are surprisingly confident about the short term, encouraged by the opportunities our cheaper currency and a better-performing global economy have created. These have provided a much-needed short-term boost for our economy, particularly our manufacturers. “However, Government still has
much to do in these uncertain times if the UK is going to stay on the right economic track. “The modern industrial strategy
could be a step in the right direction. More importantly, simplifying regulation and taxes, and improving our education and training systems are high priorities for businesses in the new economy.”
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business network April 2017
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