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OPERATIONAL REVIEWWEATHER FORECASTING


purposes and is carried out using different techniques, depending on how long range the forecast is, said William Cho, head of MatthewsDaniel Weather.


The weather department provides both ‘hindcasting’ and forecasting weather analytics. Hindcasting includes return period analyses and voyage simulations for pre-planning and reviewing engineering applications, such as securing cargo on heavy lift vessels.


Global model outputs


The MatthewsDaniel weather team uses predominantly the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global model outputs, such as GFS, Wavewatch, WAM, and HYCOM for open sea areas. For areas sheltered by surrounding islands and shallow water regions, it uses regional models. For operational weather forecasting during a transit, it uses a combination of


www.heavyliftpfi.com


these models. “However, more importantly, we take a multi-model approach in order to minimise model bias,” Cho explained. “This approach goes beyond taking a simple average of multiple model outputs. MatthewsDaniel’s meteorologists weight-average model outputs based on our experience with various models. Some models perform better than others based on geographic regions and certain weather set- up scenarios.” Long-range forecasts, used perhaps to


calculate the degree of risk of an operation, might be based on average conditions from marine charts. A two/three-month forecast, used perhaps for pre-planning a vessel voyage or transport movement, might be based on simulation models. And an actual


We take a multi-model approach in order to minimise model bias,. –William Cho, MatthewsDaniel


weather forecast might be used to predict what will happen in the next seven days and to avoid any specific problems with wind, waves or other adverse conditions.


Modelling MatthewsDaniel uses a mix of dynamical and statistical modelling. As the name suggests, dynamical uses existing data as its start point and is then continually updated with weather data as it occurs. Statistical modelling uses past data to predict weather outcomes. Using both types of model increases forecast accuracy, said Cho. MatthewsDaniel can suggest when


would be a good, or bad, time of year to carry out a transport operation and can also advise on whether it is prudent to wait, say, two weeks to avoid a specific weather event like a hurricane. For pre-planning a dry transport or a wet


tow two/three-months in advance, pilot charts (http://matdanweather.com/ pilotchart/) provide a general overview of average meteorological and oceanographic


January/February 2017 81


Boskalis


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