National CBRN Capability, the Commercial Model. Not If, But When…
Crystal Ball
Western governments, ravaged by the credit crunch, are increasingly looking to reduce public spending in an effort to bring their budget deficits under control. As the world economy lurches from 2011 to 2012, governments are looking for increasingly radical ideas to ease the public purse, and even some traditionally ‘sacred cows’ are now being rounded up. The world of CBRN is just such an area, in which the very low risk of an event occurring is coupled with the very high impact of such an event happening – the almost nightmare scenario for cash-strapped governments. These governments rightly find it difficult to reconcile themselves with the provision of expensive capabilities that are unlikely to be used – but if they don’t, they’ll be damned when those capabilities are required. You’ll be pleased to hear however, that there is now another option.
An alternative approach to CBRN and DNA analysis would be to have ‘baskets’ of capability, available on a retainer basis at high readiness, that would then be charged out on a usage basis. This approach can save national bodies significant resources. They do not have to maintain standing resources, like for instance the UK CBRN Regiment [Of hallowed memory – since it is now replaced by an RAF Wing Ed.], with all the fixed costs associated with this. Instead they are able to pay for a service when needed. In this way, if there is a CBRN event, though the costs will be high, they will be less costly than maintaining a standing capability. Baskets of capability put ‘technique capabilities’ together, for example biological weapon monitoring and DNA analysis. The day-to-day activity is DNA analysis and this keeps the operatives’ biological weapon monitoring skills sharp, as the techniques are very
similar. Other areas include radiac monitoring, toxic industrial hazards, and chemical weapons. All these ‘paired’ areas use similar equipments and techniques for their detection, identification, monitoring and analysis (DIMA). Hence, governments can cover civil and military CBRN consequence and risk management with a single contract through a retainer fee and a daily usage charge – this is going to be cheaper by some margin: 50-70% less than current costs.
CBRN – Threats, Challenges and Management of Risk
There are various aspects to the CBRN threat, however policy makers and relevant security agencies are primarily concerned with terrorist groups whose intention is to acquire and carry out CBRN attacks on crowded public areas. There is a consensus among academics and experts in the field of counterterrorism that ongoing globalisation processes are changing the nature of warfare, together with the increasing threat from global, networked, decentralised and outsourced terrorist groups who are prepared to use CBRN materials. Hence, there is an increasing requirement for nation states to have a viable CBRN capability in order to protect its people against the potential horrors of a CBRN attack.
The insurance market has changed over the last decade and this has led to high premiums that insure against the danger of terrorism. This is now almost ubiquitous. The challenge is to cover off these risks with a sound capability from a financial perspective and this will be at the root of any good risk-management strategy. These strategies must cover the risk but at a reasonable and affordable cost. And it
is the terrifying and poorly understood CBRN threat environment, which hitherto has perpetuated high premiums and necessitated state-run and owned capabilities.
While much is made of various mathematically based models, it is evident that there should be significant benefits from physical intervention through improved assessment, training and monitoring of high-risk targets, particularly where the transportation of goods in the aviation, marine, rail and road sectors is involved. A proactive intervention service by highly qualified CBRN expert teams significantly mitigates risk, and is therefore commercially attractive to both insurers and policy holders in developing their risk management programmes.
The Capability
The capability must be scalable, with deployable teams made up of suitably experienced and qualified operators who have many years of experience in DIMA biological and chemical agents. These would probably be four-person teams, with a team leader and three operators, working to shift patterns as required. These teams must be able to work in austere conditions and be self-contained. The team’s kit, all up, weighs 200- 500KGs in peli-cases, and there will need to be teams kept at high or very high readiness to be able to support operations and activities worldwide. Teams pre- positioned in Europe, Africa and the Far East are possible, and probably the ideal situation, as they would be able to support a number of states simultaneously. These teams would provide a mobile DNA analysis capability or DIMA across CBRN, covering chemical and biological survey and monitoring, as well as the whole range of chemical and biological weapons, toxic industrial
CBRNe South America 2012, 13-14 March, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. More information on
www.icbrnevents.com 70 CBRNe WORLD February 2012
www.cbrneworld.com
CBRNeWORLD
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