2011 visibility improves
5.1% y/y to $3.6 trillion in 2011.—Gartner Computers, tablets & peripherals: • Worldwide PC shipments grew 3.1% y/y to 93.5 million units in 4Q’10. Annual shipments increased 13.8% in 2010. Weak consumer PC growth in holiday sales was offset by solid profes- sional growth—Gartner
• Workstation shipments expanded 31.8% y/y to 849.7 thousand units in Q3’10.—Jon Peddie Research
• Connected e-reader sales reached 6.6 million units in 2010.—Gartner
• Hardcopy peripherals shipment value increased 17% y/y to $14.3 billion.— IDC
Mobile communication: • Mobile communication factory equip- ment revenue increased 7.9% in 2010 to $235.5 billion.—iSuppli
• Handset sales topped 1.35-1.45 billion units in 2010, with smartphones reach- ing 270-280 million units.—Digitimes
20101231
World Semiconductor Shipments Monthly US$
10 15 20 25 30
0 5
US$ Billions (3-month average) Record high 60 50
• Tablet sales are expected to grow from 21 million units in 2010 to 168 million in 2014.—Yankee Group
• China had 850 million subscribers to mobile
communication services November 2010.—MIIT
Military electronics: U.S. Defense budget is scheduled to peak in 2011 and then decline until at least 2015 (Chart 4).
Consumer electronics: • Consumer electronics market is expected to grow 10% in 2011 to $964 billion.—Consumer Electronics Association
• China’s consumer electronics market projected to grow 9.4% CAGR from US$162.1bn in 2010 to US$263.4bn by 2015.—
Electronics.ca Publications
• Digital still camera factory unit ship- ments rose 10.4% to 121.4 million units in 2010.—iSuppli
• LCD TV market is expected to increase from 180 million units in 2010 to over 210 million units in 2011.—Digitimes
20110119
World PCB Shipments (with forecast) Converted @ Constant 2008 Exchange Rates
$ Billion
Assumptions: Europe = composite European SIA & local PCB assoc data Japan & N. America from JPCA & IPC data Taiwan/China based upon 44 rigid & flex company composite Rest of Asia growth = Taiwan/China 44 company composite Data scaled to match Henderson Ventures annual totals 2008 based upon sum of monthly totals
40 -20% +7% +19%
• TV shipments increased 17% y/y to 247 million + units in 2010 and projected to slow 13% in 2011.—DisplaySearch
EMS, ODM & Related in
Assembly Activity EMS market revenue increased 33% y/y to $190 billion in 2010.—iSuppli AsteelFlash named Joop Ruijgrok Ex. VP of sales and marketing. Axiom Manufacturing Services appointed Christine Elliott supply chain manager, Mark Henderson technical engineer and Mike Gillard sr. account manager of its Business Development Group. Axis Electronics increased headcount by 30 in 2010. BB electronics added an Ecoselect 2 from ERSA. Celestica: • became PV inverter products produc- tion partner for Advanced Energy.
• VP, Aerospace and Defense Michael J. McGuire was appointed to Aerospace Industries Association’s Governors.
Board of
Cencorp acquired Savcor’s Face (Telecom) business.
30
2009 recession much sharper but shorter than 2001
SIA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 20 31.6 38.6 31.2 29.4 31.7 37.6 42.9 51.7 54.3 51.1 41.0 49.0 52.4
13579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579111 99
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CALENDAR YEAR
Source: Custer Consulting Group - base year expanded by monthly growth of N. American, European, Japanese & Taiwan/China monthly PCB shipments
Chart 3. 20110119
World Global PMI, Electronic Equipment, PCB & Semiconductor Shipments
3/12 rate of change
0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5
Converted @ Constant 2008 Exchange Rates PCB
"0" Growth El Equip Global PMI SIA
200 400 600 800
0
3 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 912 00
01 02 03 Source: Custer Consulting Group Chart 5.
www.globalsmt.net 04 05 06 CALENDAR YEAR VentureOutsource/Penumbra Strategies 1/2011 Chart 6. Global SMT & Packaging – February 2011 – 21 07 08 09 10 DoD Budget
Procurement (Defense wide) R&D, Test & Evaluation
20110109
U.S. Dept of Defense Budget (Fiscal Year)
Constant 2010 $ (Billions) Chart 4. 07 08 09 10 11 12
2006 518.2
105.3 73.4
2007 587
134.3 76.2
2008 636.8
164.6 75.9
2009 683.8
130.1 76.4
2010 729.1
147.2 79.3
FY
2011 749.7
141.3 77.9
2012 668.6
120.8 75.7
2013 634.8
119.1 73.4
2014 630.4
122.2 71.1
2015 631.2
127.4 69.8
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