Communications Technology
Constant change and development in the ICT sector
Joe Marsella, chief technology officer, EMEA, at Ciena, predicts five new trends in the world of ICT for 2016
W
ith all the disruption in the ICT sector, from the rise of web- scale players, applications and services to large-scale mergers and acquisitions, the only thing remaining constant is change. 2016 will be the year service providers are compelled to adapt. We expect to see new approaches, from capacity management to new service packages, to help monetise networks and make sense of the data consumption explosion. More specifically, here are five trends we predict for the year ahead.
OTT and 4K UHD 2015 saw substantial growth in over-the- top (OTT) services, particularly high- bandwidth video streaming services. Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime, as well as more established broadcasters, have embraced video on-demand with vigour. Netflix alone recently reported over 60 million users and continues to expand into additional geographies. Up until now, service providers have merely been accommodating this content while looking to add to it themselves with on-demand OTT offerings. With the increase of 4K ultra-high-definition (UHD) video and the continued consumer migration to OTT entertainment, operators will be forced to react.
Bandwidth consumption, led by video, is set for another major jump and service providers will have to invest in the underlying supporting infrastructure again. However, this time will be different – they know what to expect. Gone are the days of modest increases in wholesale and end- user charges. Providers who underestimated the first OTT wave will be looking to extract value, either through value-added services of their own or via unique partnerships with content providers to monetise their network and core assets. Providers will also be ready to mitigate
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the impact of this content on the networks and WAN connections; caching content in order to support the higher usage rates thus reducing the strain on the network and keeping data closer to the end-user.
Data centres and power Insatiable demand for content, such as video and mobile apps, will continue to grow. The Internet Society reported that there are a million available apps, and more than 100 billion downloads. These create considerable data demands on the supporting infrastructure, and depend on seamless, high-capacity, low-latency networks to connect users to content and content to content. 2016 will continue to see fundamental change to the way networks are designed, architected and provisioned in order to support the growing bandwidth requirements of these applications and enable the web-scale world. More data flowing over the network also drives higher power requirements and the continued expansion of data centres closer to more efficient sources of power. We will see the advent of new, purpose- built data centre interconnect architectures, as well as the increasing use of renewable energy sources. As a result providers will look to modern data centre interconnect (DCI) technologies, such as Ethernet, to ensure that any network has the ability to both scale and lower power consumption per port or per Gb to meet 2016 energy consumption targets.
Preparation for 5G While we are not ready for a launch of mainstream 5G services just yet, the industry is preparing. Impressive plans for 5G suggest it will require 1,000 times more bandwidth, 100 per cent coverage and 99.9 per cent availability, all essential given
that 21 billion Internet of Things (IoT) are expected to be active by 2020.
In anticipation backhaul
and core networks need to be strengthened and made more efficient, to carry both the throughput as well as the number of concurrent devices. In particular, software defined networking (SDN) and network function virtualisation (NFV) provide opportunities to utilise unused capacity more effectively as well as a
means to consolidate services over a single underlying network infrastructure. With SDN and NFV, network operators will accelerate and automate service delivery across both virtual and physical domains. 2016 will lay the groundwork for 5G’s inception, seeing service providers investing in cellular data network backhaul and core network infrastructure, as well as embrace SDN and NFV for faster service enablement.
Networking business trends Notable mergers and acquisitions through 2015 focused on broadening customer depth and reach with more bundled offerings, such as BT’s proposed acquisition of EE to add cellular back into its product mix to enable a broader range of lucrative ‘quad-play’ services. The next year will see even more deals designed to create ‘multi-play’ opportunities, especially as Europe has more than 150 service providers. We will see mergers that help expand capabilities, develop new revenue streams and ensure market leaders are equipped for more efficient service provisioning to facilitate higher data demands and ever growing customer expectations. Legislation is also encouraging unification, the EU Digital Single Market for example, is making strides to encourage regular and integrated use of communications across the region, such as the abolition of data roaming charges, and as this continues it will also lead to collaboration and innovative partnering.
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Pay as you earn capacity With mobile data expected to reach 173 million TB by 2018, service providers will need to offer more flexible service plans that can react to alternating network demands and manage both business and consumer expectations. This means that unlimited data packages will become more difficult as the model becomes unsustainable and incompatible with effective capacity planning. SDN and NFV will lead to alternative approaches, including ‘Pay as you earn’ (PAYE) models, based on actual network consumption rather than paying for inefficient, ‘contingency’ capacity that often sits idle. Typically only 20 to 70 per cent of network capacity is fully utilised, PAYE will allow service providers to diversify their product portfolios, adjusting to accommodate peaks, and provision services, as and when needed; offering more tailored packages and higher SLAs, such as increased protection and capacity for backup, or network optimisation for big data analytics projects.
As web-scale data demands, influenced by cloud computing, OTT services, IoT and 5G, continue to impact the way we live and work, we will see fundamental change to the way networks are designed, architected and provisioned. Throughout 2016, service providers will embrace solutions that allow them to adapt; new approaches will ensure networks can scale and are equipped to take advantage of the next wave of technological evolution.
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