Future outlook Consumers reveal 2015 holiday intentions
U
K consumer attitudes to holidays reflect both a widespread desire to travel and the need to make choices at a time when many households remain squeezed.
The recovering economy and associated increase in consumer confidence through 2014 are reflected in TNS research findings which suggest some shifts in attitude going into 2015.
The pattern of holidays The UK population broadly divides into three segments with regards to taking overseas holidays (excluding to Ireland): l 44%, or almost 21 million adults, go on a holiday abroad at least once a year and 18% take more than one such holiday a year. That compares with 46% taking at least one holiday and 17% more than one holiday when asked the same question
The Deloitte view
Looking forward to 2015, the situation is difficult to call. For the moment good news outweighs bad, but it wouldn’t take much to swing it the other way. Our consumer tracker data shows consumers are likely to be in an optimistic mood as they head into 2015. During 2014, a declining rate of inflation helped ease pressure on household finances and consumers anticipate this will continue into 2015, allowing them to continue to divert some of their spending from non- discretionary to discretionary items. However, there are a number of
factors that could ruin the party. Sentiment will be impacted by any signs of the UK economy slowing or of the property market beginning to stagnate, as this has proved a key driver of
confidence in the past year. Any interest rate rises would also potentially impact consumer confidence. Spending on holidays faces a tough
comparative in the fourth quarter of this year and first quarter of 2015, as trading was very strong a year earlier. That suggests the last quarter of 2014 and first quarter of 2015 are likely to remain flat year on year at best, but it would represent a creditable performance. As for the rest of 2015, much will depend on the general election, with the next government facing some tough decisions to try to bring the deficit under greater control without affecting the recovery. On a different note, the fleet
investments made by a number of leading airlines will ensure consumers
benefit from a new generation of aircraft offering heightened levels of comfort and economy. The growth of low-cost long-haul flights will be tested during 2015 as we see whether increased capacity is met by increased demand. It remains to be seen whether any of the benefit of the lower operating costs of the new aircraft and the lower fuel prices evident in the latter half of 2014 will be passed through to the consumer. A number of profit warnings suggest
the market remains tough and gains have proved hard won. As the fight for better yields and
margins continues into 2015, it is likely that the real winner will once again be consumers if they continue to have the appetite for spending.
Exclusive TNS consumer research points to holidaymakers’ intentions for 2015. TNS group director Tom Costley reports on the results
a year ago. In such a survey, differences of one to two percentage points are not normally considered statistically significant. l 20% take a holiday abroad only occasionally, that is less than once in every five years (compared with 26% a year ago). l 28% have not taken a holiday abroad in the past 10 years, including 16% or more than seven million adults who have never been on such a holiday. The comparable figures in October 2013 were 27% and 15%. This distribution is very similar to that
evident in last year’s report and indicates that demand has not increased. About seven in 10 (68%) of the UK population take some sort of holiday or short break away from home, whether in the UK or Ireland or overseas, at least once a year (against 71% in 2012 and 73% in 2013). But there are wide differences between social classes, with 84% of those
60 | Travel Weekly Insight Annual Report 2014
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