Summer 2014 Holiday sales lag upturn in economy T
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
5.3m 4.3m 2.9m 3m 4.1m 4.3m 3.3m 1.7m 1.5m 1.8m 1.9m2.1m 2.9m 2m 1.67m 1.8m2m 4.4m 4.1m 3.3m 3.3m 3.1m 2.1m
Ap M Junayr 2012
he 18 months to October 2014 saw a recovery in the UK outbound market following five years of decline. It’s now clear holiday
departures began to rise early
in 2013, with revised Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures showing a 2% increase on 2012 in the second quarter of last year, rising to 6% in the peak summer third quarter – the first increase in outbound holidays since 2008. The improvement carried through to the end of 2013, with a 7% rise year on year in the final quarter, and into the first half of 2014 with a 4% improvement in the first three months and 5% improvement in the second. This left outbound departures in April-June 2014 only 11% shy of their peak in 2008. Preliminary ONS figures then show
OVERSEAS HOLIDAYS FROM UK BY MONTH 30 months to Sept 2014
a tail-off in July-August 2014, which is disappointing but must be measured against the 6% improvement in the same period a year earlier. The monthly departure figures (chart: Overseas Holidays from UK by Month) suggest the tail-off may in part be attributed to the World Cup in June-July, since June was flat year on year and July
OVERSEAS HOLIDAYS FROM UK BY MONTH 30 months to Sept 2014
5.6m 4.5m 4.1m 4.1m 3.7m 5.6m 4.3m
The outbound travel sector has reason to smile despite a challenging summer. Ian Taylor reports
down. But latest ONS figures, published as this report went to press, showed the year- on-year decline continuing into September.
ONS data We’ll examine these figures more closely in a moment. But first it is worth noting what ONS figures provide. The data, based on a rolling survey of outbound passengers, is released monthly and revised as more information becomes available. The ONS provides seasonally adjusted
figures to make comparisons easier, but all figures in this report are non-seasonally adjusted. Monthly figures may therefore be subject to distorting factors such as the changing date of a bank holiday or a major sporting event. Figures over three months offer a clearer guide, but month-by-month comparisons can be revealing. ONS figures for all outbound trips are
broken down in two ways, by purpose of trip – holiday, business or visiting friends or relations (VFR) – and by broad destination region: Europe, North America or the rest of the world. Europe is broken down into EU, EU15 (the EU members prior to enlargement after 2004) and ‘other EU’, meaning newer members, including Cyprus, Malta and Slovenia. The divisions are useful but obviously
limited. VFR may include holiday trips. ‘Rest of the world’ covers all long-haul destinations bar North America but also the Middle East. EU15 includes euro and non-euro countries, as does the ‘other EU’ category. However, since all but two of the EU15 members use the euro and only six of the 13 categorised as ‘other EU’ do (mostly smaller countries) the former provides a rough approximation of the eurozone. The charts (pages 21 and 23) show
J Au Sepgul Oc N Decovt Jan 2013 Feb Mar Ap M Junayr J Au Sepgul Oc N Decovt Jan 2014 Figures rounded. Most-recent figures subject to revision. Source: Office for National Statistics Feb Mar Ap M Junayr J Au Sepgul
departures broken down by quarter, month and season, with year-on-year comparisons and changes over the past six years. Holiday departures in the year to August
Travel Weekly Insight Annual Report 2014 | 19
Passengers (millions)
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