Summer 2014 Holiday sales lag upturn in economy
2014 rose 2% on the previous year and 5% on 2012 but remained 18% down on 2008. There has been something of a recovery to North America – up 6% in the year to August and 9% in June-August – despite the region remaining 29% down on 2008. Trips to the world beyond Europe and North America were just 7% down on 2008 in the year to August and 1% down in peak summer (July-August 2014).
TIMING OF HOLIDAY BOOKING: JUNE 2014*
TIMING OF HOLIDAY BOOKING: JUNE 2014*
Don’t know 8%
Days before departure 17%
1 month or less before departure 15%
before departure 32%
Sept-Oct 31%
before departure 28%
Base: 468 UK adults planning 2014 holiday overseas, but yet to book by June 3, 2014
Source: TNS (June 2014)
Base: 789 UK adults planning overseas holiday in June-December 2014
Source: TNS (June 2014) 1-2 months
July-Aug 39%
Two months or more
GfK booking data Figures from industry analyst GfK shed another light on the market. The ONS looks at departures and covers everything: trade and independent, low-cost flights and package holidays. GfK provides data on trade bookings, with as much emphasis on price and revenue as volume. We’ll focus on the main season, summer 2014, but it is worth noting GfK reported summer 2013 bookings down 5% year on year “in line with capacity cuts” – an observation borne out by the fact revenues remained flat against summer 2012. Winter 2013-14 ended 2% down on passenger numbers, with revenue flat year on year. However, package sales were up 5% on the
Consumers want a second holiday but are carefully managing spend
previous winter and family bookings up 2%. GfK noted a decline in durations over 11 nights, “a significant increase” in four to six nights and “the largest growth” in seven nights, concluding: “Consumers want a second holiday but are carefully managing spend.” Summer 2014 finished 3% down year
on year for passenger bookings despite a strong start to the year which saw bookings up 3% on 2013 in January and up 2% for the season to date. February and March brought year-on-year declines but season-to- date bookings remained 1% up at the end of March. April was a different story with bookings down 12% on 2013. Thereafter, May was -3%, June -7% and July -3%. August and September also showed declines, leaving the summer to end 3% down on 2013. GfK noted January bookings “correlated with a high point in consumers’ views of how the general economic situation would improve”. This fits with the point made elsewhere in this report that the UK economic recovery has failed to translate into improvements in household income. The data suggests those with money
INTENDED TIMING OF OVERSEAS HOLIDAY: JUNE-DEC 2014
INTENDED TIMING OF OVERSEAS HOLIDAY: Jun-Dec 2014
Nov-Dec 10%
Don’t know 5%
June 15%
booked early, especially families, and the late market disappointed – if less on bookings than on price. The decline in departures highlighted by ONS figures matches this picture. Yet within this overall decline, GfK data
shows package holiday bookings up 1% year on year and all-inclusive bookings up 3%. Family bookings rose 2%. Average durations continued to shorten: seven-night durations were up 9% and 10-nights up 8%. As a consequence, overall revenue declined in line with bookings, with GfK noting: “A slight concern is the growth in holidays priced under £399 and a decrease in those between £400 and £799.” GfK does not break out data on online bookings against those on the high street or by phone (a result of how it receives the data from participating companies).
20 | Travel Weekly Insight Annual Report 2014
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