Summer 2014 Holiday sales lag upturn in economy
It differentiates between high street and direct (online or phone), recording a five- point difference in bookings performance year on year for summer 2014. The data shows high street agency bookings down 5% on summer 2013, but direct bookings flat. However, the gap in average selling price between the two remains significant – prices averaging £615 direct but £797 through agents, suggesting businesses may reduce agency sales at their peril. Trading by the big two broadly fitted this
picture. Thomas Cook reported summer 2014 bookings flat year on year to mid-September but prices 4% down. Tui Travel reported mainstream bookings flat to the end of September, but average selling prices up 1% – reflecting its ‘unique’ product strategy.
Winter 2014-15 and summer 2015 The outlook for winter 2014-15 and summer 2015 appeared to diverge strongly as this
GfK data shows summer 2015 sales up 6% year on year for the season to the end of October
report went to press. GfK reported October bookings for winter down 8% year on year and season-to-date bookings down 4%. By contrast, GfK data showed summer 2015 bookings up 6% year on year for the season to the end of October and revenues up 8%. Continuation of this trend would see the market go into 2015 in a strong position whatever the uncertainties to come. GfK noted “families, seven-night breaks and all- inclusive holidays” again driving the growth, with package sales for the summer up 7%. Family bookings for the winter were also up, by 4%, despite the season’s overall drop. TNS research on the overseas holiday
BELOW: The charts illustrate the sharp decline in UK charter capacity, formerly a mainstay of the summer market, in the last 10 years.
UK AIRLINE CAPACITY & GROWTH, 2003-13
Available seat-kilometres % change year on year
100 150 200 250 300 350
50 0
5% 4.6% 4% -0.3%
Charter Scheduled
Charter Scheduled
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Civil Aviation Authority Figures rounded
UK AIRLINE CAPACITY & GROWTH Capacity (available seat-kms, millions) % change year on year
UK charter passengers 15.4% 6.3% -2.3% -1.2% 6.2% -0.2% -4.3% -8% -17.9% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.9% -3.4% -5.1% -8.7% -10.7% 8.1% -1.1% 1.1% 1.7%
10 15 20
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35
0 5
intentions of consumers for the next 12 months (conducted in October 2014) appears on pages 61-65. It suggests no great change in the proportion likely to take an overseas holiday (49% against 47% a year ago), but a rise in those expecting to spend more (36% against 31%).
22 | Travel Weekly Insight Annual Report 2014
Seat kilometres (billions) 221
104 104
102 282
101 100
92 292 76 282 72 71 65 58
305 308 315
300 305
230 266
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
33.7m 32.3m
30.5m 29.8m 29.4m
26.4m 22.3m
20.9m 20.6m
19.2m 18m Passengers (millions)
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