News in brief...
One search made every two seconds using rail app Rail passengers are increasingly turning to smartphones to check train times on the move, with the equivalent of at least one train journey now being searched every two seconds using the official app. New figures from National Rail Enquiries - paid for and run by train companies - show that since it launched its Android and iPhone apps last year, passengers have used them to make more than 53.4 million enquiries.
New skill for Transport Minister Simon Burns visited the construction site of the new Wakefield Westgate station and helped to lay bricks that will be used in the construction. The Minister visited to see progress on the £8.8 million project, which represents the first newly-constructed station building on the East Coast Main Line in decades.
Consultation opens on proposed routes for Crossrail 2 Transport for London and Network Rail have launched a public consultation on the proposed Crossrail 2, designed to support London’s population growth. Crossrail is already set to provide a ten per cent increase to rail capacity in London and Crossrail 2 would add to this even further. The consultation will seek the views of people in London and the South East and will run from 14 May to 2 August 2013. It aims to establish the level of support for the project and where the public and stakeholders would like Crossrail 2 to serve. Visit
www.crossrail2.
co.uk
Resurgence for rural rail According to the Association of Community Rail Partnerships, the number of journeys made on community rail lines - generally smaller lines that branch off a mainline into rural towns and villages - has risen by 4.1 million (21.3 per cent) over the last five years. Many of the fastest-growing branch lines connect to seaside resorts and beauty spots, and growing numbers of local residents are choosing to use trains that run on branch lines to get to and from work or for a day out. Community Rail Partnerships, which
comprise train companies, the voluntary sector and local authorities have also been highly successful in promoting lines, providing better rail services and helping rural regeneration.
Page 6 June 2013
National Audit Office has ‘reservations’ about HS2 business case
A new report from the National Audit Office has expressed
reservations about the Department for Transport’s business case for HS2. In particular, says the NAO, ‘in presenting its case for investment in the project, the Department has poorly articulated the strategic need for a transformation in rail capacity and how High Speed 2 will help generate regional economic growth.’
According to the report, the DfT’s
methodology for appraising the project puts a high emphasis on journey-time savings, from faster and more reliable journeys. However, the relationship between these savings and the strategic reasons for doing the project, such as rebalancing regional economies, is unclear. It is also unclear to the NAO whether the business case covers just the route between London and the West Midlands (phase one, due to open in 2026) or the full Y-shaped network with lines from Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds respectively (phase two, due to open in 2032). The Y-network has a stronger economic case, it says, but this is much less certain as route designs are less well- developed.
According to the NAO, ‘the benefit-cost
ratio calculated for phase one has twice contained errors and the DfT has been slow to carry out its own assurance of the underlying analysis. The NAO’s opinion is that the Department and its advisers, HS2 Limited, should update the data underpinning some key assumptions in the ratio. Says the report: ‘The most recent
benefit-cost ratio (published in August 2012) is 1.4 to 1 but is likely to change. This is to be expected as the ratio is sensitive to changes in data underpinning assumptions,
£15.4bn to £17.3bn Estimate of the capital cost of constructing phase 1
2.5 to 1
August 2012 benefit-cost ratio for the Y-shaped network, from London to the West Midlands, Manchester and Leeds, when wider economic impacts are also included. For phase one this ratio is 1.7 to 1
£3.3 billion
Amount to be found by government spread over the four peak years of construction of phase one (2017-18 to 2020-21) to cover the gap between the Department’s forecast capital spending and its capital budgets if these were kept at 2014-15 levels.
2026
Phase one, between London and the West Midlandss, is due to open
such as GDP growth forecasts. It does not, however, reflect the Department’s current assumption on the relationship between passenger numbers and GDP growth. The Department now expects passenger numbers to grow more slowly when GDP increases. It should also carry out research into how business travellers use their time on trains. HS2 Limited has also not yet analysed the effect on passenger demand, revenues and the benefit-cost ratio of charging passengers premium prices.’ The report also notes that the estimated
cost of phase one will change as costs become firmer. In some documents, it says, the estimated cost is between £15.4 billion and £17.3 billion but a new estimate is being developed based on a clearer route and more information. The NAO estimates that there is a £3.3 billion funding gap over four years (2017-18 to 2020-21) which the government has yet to decide how to fill. Amyas Morse, head of the National
Audit Office, said: ‘It’s too early in the High Speed 2 programme to conclude on the likelihood of its achieving value for money. Our concern at this point is the lack of clarity around the Department’s objectives. The strategic case for the network should be better developed at this stage of the programme. It is intended to demonstrate the need for the line but so far presents limited evidence on forecast passenger demand and expected capacity shortages on existing lines. It is also unclear how High Speed 2 will transform regional economies by delivering jobs and growth. ‘The Department is trying against a challenging timetable to strengthen its evidence and analysis, which at present provide a weak foundation for securing and demonstrating success in the programme in future.’
1.4 to 1
The most recent transport benefit-cost ratio for phase one, published in August 2012
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