Campaign ’12


Romney Can Siphon Labor Votes From Obama


WITH DOUGLAS SCHOEN Unconventional Wisdom


Doug Schoen is an author, political strategist, Fox News contributor, and former adviser to President Bill Clinton.


His latest book is Hopelessly Divided: The New Crisis in American Politics and What It Means for 2012 and Beyond.


C BY DOUGLAS SCHOEN


ontrary to what many presume, president Obama is in serious trouble with union members. The labor vote, which has always been considered to be a lock for Democrats, is now


nothing of the sort. Current polls confirm it, the Wisconsin results demonstrate it, and history proves it — Democrats have far more trouble with the votes of organized labor than most independent observers are willing to concede. According to a Gallup Poll released


donated millions of dollars and thousands of volunteer hours to defeat Gov. Scott Walker, yet Walker won convincingly by a 53-46 percent margin. Walker also got 38 percent of the union vote. His Democratic opponent Tom Barrett polled only 62 percent. It’s important to keep in mind that Walker’s legislation effectively targeted public-sector unions. Membership in the state’s second largest public-sector union, AFSCME, dropped from 62,818 members to 28,745. So Walker drew 38 percent when labor was seemingly under assault. This result is not anomalous. Republicans have consistently outperformed the expectations that Democrats and elites have when it comes to winning union votes. History shows it. In 1980 and 1984, President Ronald Reagan won


45 percent and 46 percent of union votes respectively, building a constituency called Reagan Democrats. These voters were mostly blue-


on June 11, Gov. Mitt Romney is getting 35 percent with union members — about what John McCain polled at. President Obama is at 57 percent, with there being little variation between public- and private-sector union members. Romney too has nearly equal support among public- and private-sector union members, demonstrating that the commonly held view that public employees are more Democratic than private union members does not appear to be true. President Obama’s 57 percent is historically low, and


Republicans have consistently outperformed the expectations that Democrats and elites have when it comes to winning union votes. History shows it.


within 3 points of what Walter Mondale had. Mondale lost in a 49-state landslide. The Wisconsin special election was seemingly a test for organized labor. If so, organized labor lost. They helped collect the bulk of the signatures for the recall. They


38 NEWSMAX | AUGUST 2012


collar, unionized workers who were economically populist and socially conservative. These voters were, after all, part


of President Richard Nixon’s silent majority. Nixon actually won a majority of their votes. There is an argument that these


are voters who care about American industry, American strength abroad, and core American values. Nixon and Reagan both had their messages heard above the heads of union leaders. This will be Romney’s challenge.


He has yet to make an explicit appeal to working Americans in the way that


Ronald Reagan — or even Richard Nixon — reached out to working-class Democrats. In 2008, McCain won 39 percent of the union vote.


Romney can do much better — but only if he reaches out to labor voters. Of course, the union leaders will oppose him. But if


history is any guide, he can get 40 percent or more of their votes with a campaign that explicitly underscores their interests, and plays to their concerns.


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