Campaign ’12 COMMENTARY


Death of the Middle — Why Conservatives Should Care


M BY MARK MCKINNON


ore americans identify themselves as independents than as Democrats or


Republicans — 40 percent. This key group will likely hold the balance of power come November. Both parties are bleeding. Democrats have dropped to 29 percent, down 7 points from their 2008 high. And Republicans have fallen to 27 percent, also down 7 from their 2004 peak, according to Gallup. This is not necessarily a dramatic shift in political philosophies. When looking at ideology rather than at party, 40 percent identify as conservative, 35 percent as moderate and 21 percent liberal — relatively consistent the last decade. The defections stem from frustration with the parties. With 90 percent of Democrats supporting President Obama and 90 percent of Republicans supporting Mitt Romney, these independents in the middle could swing the 2012 election either way. But with its hyperpartisan divide, Washington doesn’t look like the people. There is no middle. Legislation passed in


MARK MCKINNON


Mark McKinnon is global vice chairman of Hill+Knowlton Strategies. He served as chief media adviser to George W. Bush’s presidential campaign. He is a co-founder of the No Labels organization, a bipartisan group dedicated to reforming American politics.


32 NEWSMAX | AUGUST 2012


the Republican-controlled House is blocked in the Senate. Likewise in the Democrat-majority Senate. Last-minute truces are grudgingly


called merely to keep the government funded for the short term; long-term problems are kicked down the road until after the next election. Once, there was hope. The Blue


Dog Coalition recalled the days of the moderate Democrats who were essential to the conservative reforms under President Ronald Reagan. But their pack was cut in half in the 2010 midterm elections. On the Republican side of the


and Medicare, the imperative is now greater to bridge the abyss. Proportionately, more independents lean politically right than left, again according to Gallup. This should be an advantage to the GOP. The Republican Party also needs to persuade doubters and nonbelievers as to the strengths of conservatism, particularly how


More independents lean politically right. This should be an advantage to the GOP.


aisle, there seems to be no appetite for a reprise of the “Gang of 14” or the “Gang of Six.” And now moderates like Olympia Snowe, Heath Shuler, and independent Joe Lieberman are fleeing Capitol Hill. With voter approval close to zero


— just 6 percent of likely voters rate Congress’ performance as good or excellent, as measured by Rasmussen — why are moderate legislators leaving or, more troubling, being “asked” to leave by their constituents? Rather than judge voters as fickle


or as partisan as Congress, perhaps expectations for rapid change were too high. And no seat is safe. So, we are back to the impasse


that helped spawn the Obamacare debacle. Two years have been wasted debating bad policy passed by brute force. With spiraling debt and major reforms needed to address massive unfunded liabilities in Social Security


conservative economic policies will help the country begin growing again. Reagan did it — he won an astounding 90 percent of the electoral vote in 1980 and 97 percent in 1984 by appealing to crossover Democrat voters. For the survival of the nation, winning the middle matters. Be specific. If Obamacare is not


the answer, what specific reforms do Republicans propose? Be honest. Acknowledge the economic strain folks outside the Beltway bubble in real America are feeling. But be optimistic too — that is our most valuable asset as a nation. Genial conservatism was Reagan’s calling card. And, the promise of opportunity, not fairness, resonates with independents. The GOP also needs to reach out


to Democrats in Congress, placing good policy over bad party politics. If the two parties cannot work


together, independents will abandon them both.


C FLANIGAN/GETTY IMAGES


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