Business travel
to support most cost-effectively the productivity of employees.” Carlson Wagonlit Travel (CWT) is rather more circumspect. The company’s 2012 Travel Price Forecast predicts that while most average travel prices will rise, the increases will be largely limited to single-figure percentages. “Travel buyers in most parts of the
world are facing tough negotiations as the landscape increases in complexity,” said Nick Vournakis, vice-president of the CWT Solutions Group, which produces the report. However, echoing Anne Godfrey’s concerns, he adds: “At the same time, economic uncertainty continues in some parts of the world and has
Graeme Milne, general manager, Corporate Traveller UK “I wish airlines could introduce new product across the whole fleet more quickly. There is still a massive inconsistency of product across airlines, which makes it difficult for business travellers. For example, when an airline launches a new business class seat, it can take up to two years to implement it fully, which means a business traveller never knows for sure what sort of seat he or she will get until they board the plane.”
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resurfaced in others, prompting increasing questions on exactly what 2012 holds in store for organisations and, by extension, for business travel.” BCD Travel’s research subsidiary Advito is just as cautious. “Based on a provisional assumption that economic growth will continue in 2012” – an assumption that may already be past its sell-by date – “Advito expects business travel demand to continue to grow, too, perhaps by low single-digit percentages in North America and Europe, and medium-to-high single- digit percentages elsewhere,” the company says. “Across all regions the price of
travel will typically grow by four per cent to six per cent, but a little lower in areas of high capacity, and considerably higher – especially for hotels and meetings – in certain boom markets.” n
Forecast
2012 BY NUMBERS
THE EXPERTS’ PRICE PREDICTIONS
IN EUROPE, the Middle East and Africa, American Express Global Business Travel says economy class short-haul ticket prices will remain flat or rise by up to 4 per cent, while short-haul business class tariffs will increase by 1 to 4 per cent. Economy long-haul prices will go up by between 2.5 and 5 per cent, and business class long-haul fares will increase by anything from 3 to 7 per cent. Oh, no, they won’t, says Carlson
Wagonlit Travel Solutions. Air ticket prices across EMEA – and across all classes – will rise by an average of between 2.1 per cent and 3.7 per cent. BCD’s consultancy division Advito
begs to differ. It reckons economy class fares will go up by 5 per cent; regional business class fares will rise 3 per cent, while long-haul business class tariffs will increase by 5 per cent. In the Middle East, economy fares will go up by 5 per cent (regional) and 4 per cent (intercontinental), while business class tickets will work out dearer by 3 per cent (regional) and 5 per cent (intercontinental). And in Africa, economy class fares will go up by 3 per cent, regardless of sector length, with business class prices increasing by 5 per cent (regional) and 4 per cent (intercontinental). When it comes to predicting hotel
price movements, the big three again choose to use different criteria, only this time it is Advito that goes for the relatively straightforward approach – the BCD company says hotel prices in Europe will rise, on average, by 2 to 3 per cent; those in Africa by 3 to 4 per cent; and those in the Middle East by 6 to 7 per cent. Across the Americas, it says, room rates will rise by 5 to 6 per cent, while Asia-Pacific hotels will raise their rates by 6 to 7 per cent. CWT Solutions gives separate
forecasts for the two halves of the year. Hotel prices in the EMEA region will rise by between 0.2 per cent and 0.9 per cent in the first half of 2012, and then by between 0.1 per cent and 0.8 per cent in the second half. North America’s average hotel rate rise is predicted to be in the 2.4 to 3.1 per
Three of the world’s leading travel management consultancies have gazed into their 2012 crystal balls and published their prognostications – using widely different metrics and coming up with wildly different results...
cent range in the first half, followed by a second-half rise between 2.6 and 3.4 per cent. In the Asia-Pacific region, hotel
prices could waver between a 1.9 per cent decrease and 2.1 per cent increase in the first half, and remain static or slip back a further 0.9 per cent in the second. The really bad news concerns Latin
America says CWT Solutions, which calculates average daily hotel rates will rocket by up to 11.8 per cent in the first half of the year, and by up to 12.2 per cent during the second half. Worst offender is Brazil, where hotel guests could see bills rise more than 24 per cent in the first half and anything up to 34 per cent during the second half. Poppycock and balderdash, says
Amex, which splits its hotel forecasts into mid- and upper-range properties, and allows itself a healthy margin of error. Overnights in Latin America will increase by between 1 to 5 per cent (mid) and 2 to 6 per cent (upper), and the corresponding figures for North America are 2.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent (mid-range) and 1.5 to 5.5 per cent (upper). In the EMEA region, mid-range
hotel prices are expected to rise by between 0.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent, while upper-range prices will go up by 1 to 5 per cent. Amex also disagrees with CWT’s
assessment of Asia-Pacific hotel prices – it calculates they will go up by 6 to 10 per cent in both price sectors. Then again, Amex says vehicle
rental rates in the US – by far the world’s largest car hire market – will remain flat or drop by 1 per cent. CWT Solutions agrees they might drop by 1 per cent, but says they might also go up by as much as 2.5 per cent. Advito, however, predicts a price
increase of between 4 and 6 per cent. What’s more, it says European rail prices will go up by 5 per cent. CWT prefers a more conservative estimate: 3.6 to 4.2 per cent, while Amex clearly decided its number-crunchers had done enough work for one day, and made no forecast at all.
JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2012
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