Gareth Morgan is a political lobbyist and associate director with Cavendish Communications (www.cavendishpc.co.uk). He is an advisor to the Guild of Travel Management Companies (GTMC)
Southern comfort
High-stakes London politics could actually help the travel sector, particularly aviation, during 2012…
The Thames Estuary: potential location for Boris Island 44
FOR ALL THAT 2011 was a tumultuous year, what it lacked was the killer voting opportunity that would be a marker for the next general election. With the capital’s upcoming mayoral contest being the first major electoral test for this government, 2012 is all about London – or, more specifically, about Boris versus Ken. This contest is shaping up to be as close as it gets, and has relevance for the business traveller. Ken has been plugging away at his election campaign for many months (if not years, unofficially) while Boris has the awkward business of running London’s government before he can really get involved in the scrap. But once we get into late January, the gloves, and the re-election campaign, will be off. As much as the ‘buffoon’ label is thrown at Boris, he is, in fact, important to our industry as a lone voice speaking up against the coalition government’s plans to stifle airport expansion in the south east. He has consistently pushed forward the ‘Boris Island’ solution and, more importantly, given voice to the
benefits that airport capacity gives the economy. Thorn in the side that he has been for the government, he is also a tremendously important part of their own election chances. Success for Boris, given all the difficulties we face, would be a major boost for the Conservative party, help maintain confidence in the coalition and also put Labour on the back foot. Conversely, Ken returning to the mayor’s office would make
As much as the ‘buffoon’ label is thrown at Boris, he is, in fact, important to our industry
for an awkward couple of years and be seen as a sign that electoral doom awaits. This explains why the Autumn
Statement contained a number of goodies for Boris. Not only were funds found to lessen price rises on the Tube (a key part of Ken’s attack) but we also saw a concession from the government that there would be an airport capacity issue in the south east, albeit in 2030, and that we needed to look at all options
other than Heathrow expansion. In contrast to the Tube fare funds, the airport concession was relatively cheap to give – but it does give oxygen to Boris’s election narrative that he is the business-friendly and visionary mayor that London needs. While this stopped short of the official look into the Thames Estuary option specifically, it means Boris has a foot in the door. He’ll now use his own charisma and the muscle of TfL (who are providing the detail to the mayor’s vision) to progress these ideas and force the door to this policy wider. And if we look wider it also
means we are entering a post- Heathrow expansion debate in politics – the coalition is opposed, and Labour has performed a volte-face on the issue, essentially killing this off politically – however much that might irk BAA. This leaves other south-east options of paramount importance and, with Boris setting the pace, he is bending debate towards his own territory. Remarkably, we’ve moved from Boris Island being an amusing wheeze to, potentially, being the most viable political option on the table. n