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Sinclair Vass of JDSU predicts the key optical communications trends we are likely to see in 2011 and beyond.
with new opportunities and challenges in 2011 to ensure that networks can keep up with demand. More than 70 million people are expected to watch full length TV episodes online in 2011, and they will expect fast, reliable, and high definition service. Indeed, by the end of 2011, video downloads are likely to exceed 40 per cent of total bandwidth demand during peak viewing hours. Big priorities for the optical communications industry in 2011 will be supporting the need for faster data rates, more powerful switching, and smarter network architectures that can handle unpredictable and fast changing traffic patterns and that can improve cost efficiencies. Also, optics created for the telecommunications market will move into other exciting new areas as new products evolve that benefit from the proven performance that telecommunications optics provide. The following are specific trends we’re likely to see in 2011.
T
Industry becomes more streamlined but still awaits smoother supply chain.
Consolidations among network equipment manufacturers (NEMs) that happened before and during the downturn will reap benefits in 2011 as fewer big players earn larger pieces of network business.
he Internet and mobile devices continue to grow as key utilities in people’s lives, presenting the optical communications industry
NEMs will stick to their strategies of sourcing components from fewer optical vendors, simplifying the supply chain. Smaller component vendors are likely to encounter challenges unless they can prove their relevance by providing unique and niche products.
The self-aware network enters the scene.
The next generation self-aware network has flexible photonic layers that can knowingly adapt to changing traffic patterns, new applications, and unexpected bandwidth fluctuations in a very seamless way. The big three industry buzzwords – colourless, directionless, and contentionless – are an important part of the self-aware network, providing functionality that allows any type of wavelength to travel across the network in any direction and to any desired destination. Providers are developing new, sophisticated optical switching components to construct network and node architectures which provide automated end to end wavelength, transponder, and route flexibility. These new components and architectures will continue to build upon and complement the wavelength selective switch (WSS), which will continue to be the central building block for flexible optical networks. The attractiveness of functionally integrated optical circuit packs that put more optical capabilities and hardware into smaller size products will continue to grow. Such line cards have already proven to provide significant cost and density advantages through integration at a sub-module level.
Do you agree or disagree with Sinclair’s views? If you have a comment to make on this or any other aspect of the network infrastructure industry contact Michael Crane on 01353 616117 or email
michael@terringtonltd.co.uk.
Expect to see a substantial move to self-aware networks that contain these optical elements in the 2013 and 2014 timeframe.
12
Transmission space gets faster and more flexible.
2011 is the year that 40 Gigabit Ethernet networks will go mainstream as price points go down and bandwidth demands skyrocket. 40 Gigabit Ethernet coherent modulation schemes will increase the length of network links and act as precursors for the deployment of 100 Gigabit Ethernet.
The 100 Gigabit Ethernet market will follow close behind 40 Gigabit Ethernet as major NEMs demonstrate in house solutions and start to deploy first networks while also looking to outsource second generation designs to optical component vendors. In fact, many in the industry believe that 100 Gigabit Ethernet will take off very strongly in 2011, capturing a large fraction of the high speed market and curtailing the growth of 40 Gigabit Ethernet significantly. In the line side 100 Gigabit Ethernet space, a widely supported coherent transmission solution is being adopted for new bandwidth deployments with first networks currently going live. This is driving demand for a new range of high speed optical components including modulators, narrow line width lasers, and passive multiplexing solutions.
Optics move from telecom to new gesture recognition and clean energy markets.
Last year, new markets began to leverage optical technology because of its high reliability, performance, and efficiency. Gesture recognition, the ability for a person to control technology using body movements, is one example of a new market that made a big debut at the end of 2010 in video gaming.
The gaming, computing, home entertainment, and mobile phone industries are huge opportunities for gesture recognition companies as they figure out how to tap these markets. Second and third generation versions of gesture recognition technology are already in the works.
Suppliers that will be successful at expanding into these new markets are likely to be larger, diversified companies that have the resources to innovate in a number of areas while mitigating price and volume manufacturing pressures. In the near future, expect to see optical technology emerge in other new and exciting markets that will further improve products that people use every day.
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