Presidential Election Predictions From Prof. Allan Lichtman
Ronald REAGAN 1984
George H.W. BUSH 1988
Bill CLINTON 1992 Bill CLINTON 1996 Al GORE 2000*
the suspension of most cam- paign activities. Biden retreated to his
George W. BUSH 2004
Barack OBAMA 2008
Barack OBAMA 2012
Donald TRUMP 2016 Joe BIDEN 2020
home in Delaware and spent the duration of election sea- son off ering quaint missives from his basement. There were occasional inquiries about his mental acuity, a few mutterings over his fi tness, rumors about his health. But those rumbles were
* Gore won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College after the U.S. Supreme Court awarded Florida to George W. Bush by a margin of 537 votes out of almost 6 million cast.
gan’s reelection during a time where polls and pundits were singing a dif- ferent tune. Since then using the keys, Licht-
man has predicted the winners every four years, including Donald Trump in 2016.
The keys include: KEY 1: Midterm Gains KEY 2: No Primary Contest KEY 3: Incumbency KEY 4: No Third Party KEY 5: Strong Short-Term Economy KEY 6: Strong Long-Term Economy KEY 7: Major Policy Change KEY 8: No Social Unrest KEY 9: No Scandal KEY 10: No Foreign/Military Failure KEY 11: Major Foreign/ Military Success
KEY 12: Charismatic Incumbent KEY 13: Uncharismatic Challenger
This year Biden lost two keys,
the “mandate” key that involves midterm results because the Demo- crats lost the House in 2022, and the “charismatic” key because he wasn’t a “once-in-a-generation” candidate like John F. Kennedy or Franklin Roosevelt. Biden won two keys as an incum- bent and for not having a primary
challenger, but Democrats would lose those keys if he’s out of the race. Biden’s policies were a “major”
change from Trump’s, so he secured that key.
Lichtman believes Biden won’t
lose the “scandal” key. For that key to be lost, he said Biden has to per- sonally face a scandal. The shakiest keys for Biden are
the ones involving foreign policy, social unrest, and the performance of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a third- party candidate. Lichtman awarded the two keys
related to foreign policy and the mil- itary to Trump. If support for third-party candi-
date RFK Jr. stabilizes around 10% or higher in the polls, Biden will lose the key. In the event social unrest breaks
out again like it did in the summer of 2020 or earlier this year on college campuses, Biden could lose that key. The only way Biden would lose
the short-term economic key is if economists declare a recession. Most important to Lichtman’s
success, he says, is keeping his per- sonal preferences out of the process. “If you do analysis on predictions
based on your political preferences, you will be wrong,” he said.
drowned out by the lusty din surrounding Trump, with his epic personality and the fi erce clashes between MAGA fa- natics and haters impaired by “Trump Derangement Syn- drome.” Trump, meanwhile, strug-
gled with the social restric- tions and policy complica- tions of an epidemic, and his own ill-timed bout with CO- VID-19. Many members of the dominant media decided that resistance to Trump took pre- cedence over vows of impar- tiality. They placed their mi- crophones, pens, and keypads on the scale, rendering the coverage lopsided and vacant. Throughout the 2020
cycle, there was not a single substantive journalistic pro- fi le or investigation of Biden’s aptitude as a leader, and the scrutiny of Trump was over- wrought and unserious. The voters, exhausted by
the myriad stresses of lock- down, weary of Trump’s Twitter antics and idiosyn- cratic turbulence, ultimately chose Biden in an election so close, the fi nal result was announced on Dec. 14, fi ve weeks after Election Day. Biden the unlikely, Biden
AUGUST 2024 | NEWSMAX 67
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