Politics
Neck-and-Neck Races Will Seal Deal in November
These 8 states decide whether Trump wins back the White House.
W BY JOHN GIZZI
hen it comes to pres- idential elections, the worst-kept secret is that 40 of the 50 states
are essentially written off. The South and far West, with a
few exceptions such as Virginia and Oregon, are reliably Republican, and the East Coast and a few states in the Midwest (notably Illinois) are solidly Democrat. This means that the electoral votes
in eight states are “up for grabs” and will determine whether the next presi- dent is Donald Trump or Joe Biden. About the only thing their respec-
tive campaigns agree upon is that the swing states are all in play as of now, but could go either way by November.
ARIZONA It is hard to believe that the home state of Republican presidential nomi- nees Barry Goldwater (1964) and John McCain (2008) could possibly be so competitive. But in 2016, Trump won the Grand
Canyon State by a lower margin than other modern GOP candidates, and in 2020 Biden eked out a win (by 0.3%) to become only the second Democrat
since 1952 to carry Arizona. With 11 electoral votes at stake, state Republicans are taking no chances. Polling: Trump leads 51%-46%.
Beacon Research.
GEORGIA In results that were at the center of the Trump campaign’s claim that they were robbed of victory in 2020, the Republican president lost to Democrat Biden by 49.47%-49.24% — or 11,779 votes out of roughly 3 million cast. While Trump and Republican Gov.
Brian Kemp are not close, the GOP chief executive has taken steps he and other conservatives feel will secure the Peach State’s electoral votes this fall. These include a provision that allows challenges to be accepted and voters removed from the rolls up until 45 days before an election. The measure also says homeless people must use the county voter registration office as their address instead of where they live. Polling: Trump leads 43%-37%. Quinnipiac.
MICHIGAN The race never ended here, as many Republican activists believe shenani- gans took place in 2020 when the votes
The South and far West, with a few exceptions such as Virginia and Oregon, are reliably Republican, and the East Coast and a few states in the Midwest (notably Illinois) are solidly Democrat.
42 NEWSMAX | AUGUST 2024
were counted in Detroit. “Democrats were out register-
ing illegal immigrants in ’20 and are almost surely out doing that today,” Norm Shinkle, co-chair of the Ingham County (Lansing) Republican Party, told Newsmax. Last year, Democrat state Attorney
General Dana Nessel launched felony charges against 16 Republican electors on grounds they were part of a scheme to commit forgery and conspiracy to steal Michigan’s electoral votes from Biden.
Polling: Trump leads 37%-36%.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies. Trump leads 46%-45%. Mitchell Research.
NEW HAMPSHIRE After going with Democrats by slim margins in 2016 and 2020, New Hampshire is sure to host a close con- test in 2024. “I think New Hampshire still leans
Biden, but with less certainty than four years ago,” said former Republi-
TRUMP BIDEN
51% 46% ARIZONA
SWING
TRUMP/GREG NASH-POOL/GETTY IMAGES / BIDEN/ANNA MONEYMAKER/GETTY IMAGES
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